CAREER: Analysis and Measures of Risks in Modern Electric Energy Portfolio and Its Impacts on Power System Reliability: Measures, Algorithms and Applications

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Objectives: The goal of this Electric Supply Risk research is to establish scientific frameworks and to develop novel algorithms for measurement of risks in future electric energy supply and their impacts on the power system reliability. The approaches include extending the recent advances in risk analysis theory to develop efficient computational algorithms, construct output models of intermittent and variable energy resources, and apply the research outcomes to develop measures of the risks in future electric energy supply. These risk measures will be used to understand and quantify the impact of integration of large-scale uncertain generation resources on the power system reliability. Intellectual Merit:The intellectual merit of this project lies in its interdisciplinary research that will advance the principles, measures, algorithms and applications for understanding and quantifying the risks in the future energy supply and their impacts on the power system reliability. Broader Impacts:The broader impact of this project comes from the fundamental research and the technological advancement that address several key issues in defining the impact of risks from renewable energy resources. These risks directly affect the execution of the national energy policy. The broader impact is also reflected in the integrated education to address a serious nation-wide issue: severe reduction of power engineering workforce in the near future. This project will promote the participation from under-represented groups and women in power and renewable energy research. Furthermore, the proposed outreach to high school students will be helpful to increase their awareness of the benefit of renewable energy and the necessity of risk management.