Collaborative Research: Analysis of a Forty Thousand Year Record of Genetic and Environmental Change in the Arctic

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This is a collaborative proposal by Principal Investigators at the University of California-Los Angles and Santa Cruz, University of Alaska-Fairbanks, and the Smithsonian Institution. This award will be supported with funds from the Population Ecology Program in the Division of Biology and Arctic Natural Sciences Program. The effects of future climatic change on arctic species are a source of great uncertainty and concern and the Arctic has experienced large changes in climate since the last glacial cycle. Therefore, the study of biotic responses to the previous perturbations may provide important evidence of how the genetic diversity, diet, and geographic range of arctic species will be altered by future global climate change. Using DNA analysis, the Principal Investigators will examine the history of genetic diversity in the barren-ground caribou and an extinct arctic horse based on samples from three localities in Beringia. Bones recovered from the permafrost are an excellent source of ancient DNA and can be 14C dated. Two recent genetic studies analyzed DNA sequences from brown bear bones entombed in the arctic permafrost and found evidence of three distinct genetic epochs over the past 40,000 years, each marked by population turnover events. These previously unrecognized epochs are defined by DNA sequences from specimens older than 35 thousand (ka) BP, from specimens 21 to 10 ka BP, and by sequences from modern populations. Paleoclimate studies provide evidence that population turnover between these periods may be explained by changing climate relating to the mid-Wisconsin interstadial, the last glacial maximum, and the Holocene. However, paleoenvironmental data are sparse and inconclusive and these genetic patterns have not been verified in other species. As herbivores, caribou, and horses represent a different trophic level from brown bears and both species specialize on consuming different types of vegetation (tundra and grass-steppe, respectively). The Principal Investigators predict that ecosystem-wide climate change unfavorable to large herbivores and their predators would result in synchronous cycles of population turnover in both species across all three localities. These changes should match those previously observed in the brown bear and gray wolf. Similar regional or local ecosystem change would be manifest as synchronous cycles in a subset of localities. In contrast, differing patterns of genetic change in the two species would imply a change in the tundra/forest dominance or the presence of new species-specific competitors and/or predators. In either case, the study will provide important evidence of the potential role of climate change on genetic diversity in arctic mammals. The Principal Investigators will identify specific agents of environmental change and reconstruct past arctic environments through study of three independent classes of environmental surrogates in all three locations. First, they will develop stable isotope profiles for the remains analyzed in the DNA study. These profiles will serve as proxies for regional climate change and allow changing animal diets to be inferred. Second, they will use plant material imbedded in the teeth of herbivores to reconstruct the changes in local flora utilized by the two herbivores. Third, they will utilize existing pollen records and other paleoenvironmental data to reconstruct the regional vegetation and general climate during periods of observed genetic turnover. Importantly, they will 14C date 300 bones from the two herbivore species across Beringia which will place their results in a temporal context that will allow integration with existing climate data. Boarder Impact: All data will be placed in the public domain for future studies as new techniques and questions arise. Additionally, this research will train a group of students in cutting-edge, interdisciplinary research that incorporates genetics, pollen analysis, high-resolution radiocarbon dating, and stable isotope ecology.