Collaborative Research: Permafrost Models Intercomparison Project

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Funds are provided to develop an innovative methodology for spatially integrated assessment of permafrost conditions at small geographical scales. The project will use comprehensive permafrost modeling, interpolation and scaling techniques, and a large body of empirical information to develop a hierarchical, 'telescoping' approach to (1) advance the testing and improvement of spatial permafrost models, (2) describe the structure of heterogeneity and its translation through a continuum of geographical scales ranging from local to regional, continental, and circumpolar, and (3) design an optimum permafrost observational network. The ultimate goal is to harmonize empirical observations with spatial permafrost modeling and, as a result, increase the scientific credibility of spatial geocryological predictions for the needs of the broader scientific community involved in studying global change in the Arctic. In particular, the proposed effort will:1. provide a comprehensive evaluation and intercomparison of spatially oriented approaches to permafrost modeling, and synthesize knowledge related to the current status of spatial permafrost modeling,2. use results from modeling exercises to discern weaknesses (structural and spatial) in existing observation networks, and make recommendations about improvements to relevant observation programs,3. provide a detailed small-scale characterization of permafrost conditions consistent with observed spatial and temporal patterns, and4. generate a comprehensive set of permafrost-related products (data and models) useful to a broad group of scientists and stakeholders.