Collaborative Research: Permafrost Models Intercomparison Project

提供资金以开发一种创新的方法，以便在小地理范围内对永久冻土条件进行空间综合评估。该项目将使用全面的永久冻土建模、内插和缩放技术以及大量经验信息来开发一种分层的“伸缩”方法，以(1)推进空间永久冻土模型的测试和改进，(2)描述非均质性的结构及其通过从地方到区域、大陆和环极的一系列地理尺度的转换，以及(3)设计一个最佳的永久冻土观测网络。最终目标是使经验观测与空间永久冻土模型相协调，从而提高空间地球晶体预测的科学可信度，以满足参与研究北极全球变化的更广泛的科学界的需要。具体而言，拟议的工作将：1.对面向空间的永冻土模拟方法进行全面评价和相互比较，并综合与永冻土空间模拟现状有关的知识；2.利用模拟练习的结果查明现有观测网络中的弱点(结构和空间)，并就改进相关观测方案提出建议；3.提供与观测到的空间和时间模式一致的永冻土条件的详细小规模特征；以及4.产生一套全面的与永久冻土有关的产品(数据和模型)，对广大科学家和利益攸关方有用。

Funds are provided to develop an innovative methodology for spatially integrated assessment of permafrost conditions at small geographical scales. The project will use comprehensive permafrost modeling, interpolation and scaling techniques, and a large body of empirical information to develop a hierarchical, 'telescoping' approach to (1) advance the testing and improvement of spatial permafrost models, (2) describe the structure of heterogeneity and its translation through a continuum of geographical scales ranging from local to regional, continental, and circumpolar, and (3) design an optimum permafrost observational network. The ultimate goal is to harmonize empirical observations with spatial permafrost modeling and, as a result, increase the scientific credibility of spatial geocryological predictions for the needs of the broader scientific community involved in studying global change in the Arctic. In particular, the proposed effort will:1. provide a comprehensive evaluation and intercomparison of spatially oriented approaches to permafrost modeling, and synthesize knowledge related to the current status of spatial permafrost modeling,2. use results from modeling exercises to discern weaknesses (structural and spatial) in existing observation networks, and make recommendations about improvements to relevant observation programs,3. provide a detailed small-scale characterization of permafrost conditions consistent with observed spatial and temporal patterns, and4. generate a comprehensive set of permafrost-related products (data and models) useful to a broad group of scientists and stakeholders.