Workshop on New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, May 2004, Spain

该项目的目标是促进美国社会科学家参加暂定于2004年5月13日至14日在西班牙塞维利亚举行的关于新技术展望、预测和评估方法的研讨会。预期技术评估研究所(IPTS)将主办50-80人的研讨会，欧盟研究总局应该能够支付美国参与者的几乎所有现场费用。美国规划组织发布了征集论文的一般要求，鼓励广泛提交论文。它将从他们中挑选那些带来新观点的人，否则他们不太可能能够出席。这项奖励中的津贴将用于支付10名美国人参加这个研讨会的旅费，该研讨会将探索在评估新兴技术方面推进最先进技术的方法。这种“技术情报”对技术管理和决策支持的需求越来越大。然而，自由贸易协定在过去的利用是相当有限的--做得更好的潜力是巨大的。如果将欧洲对流程管理和公共部门的重点、美国倾向于定量方法的大范围研究和对特定技术的“微观”分析结合在一起，将会有很多好处。此外，需要新的方法来理解要评估的技术的性质变化--从工业到信息再到分子。在更充分地开发丰富的科学技术信息资源和从复杂系统的角度提出新的见解方面是有希望的。其目的是，研讨会将推动一系列持续进行的活动，包括研究、每两年举行一次的会议，以及形成一个蓬勃发展的专业社区。学术参与应该丰富自由贸易协定的方法，并导致课程。最后报告将包括一份关于技术展望、预测和评估方法方向的白皮书，包括建设性技术评估方面的工作。

The objective of this project is to facilitate participation by US social scientists in a workshop on New Technology Foresight, Forecasting, and Assessment Methods tentatively scheduled for May 13-14, 2004 in Seville, Spain. The Institute for Prospective Technology Assessment (IPTS) is hosting the workshop for 50-80 persons and the EU Directorate General for Research should be able to cover essentially all on-site costs of the American participants. The US planning group has issued a general call for papers, encouraging a broad range of submissions. It will select from among them those who bring new perspectives and are otherwise unlikely to be able to attend. The stipends in this award will help cover travel costs for 10 Americans to participate in this workshop, which will explore ways to advance the state of the art in assessing emerging technologies. Such "technological intelligence" is increasingly in demand for technology management and policy decision support. Yet, utilization of FTA in the past has been quite limited -- the potential to do better is great. There is much to be gained from bringing together European emphases on process management and public sector, large scope studies with American leanings toward quantitative methods and private sector, "micro" analyses of specific technologies. Moreover, fresh approaches are needed to understand changes in the nature of the technologies to be assessed -- from industrial to information to molecular. There is promise in exploiting rich science and technology information resources more fully and in bringing to bear new insights from complex systems perspectives. The aim is that the workshop will instigate a series of ongoing activities including research, bi-annual meetings, and nucleation of a thriving professional community. Academic engagement should enrich the approaches to FTA and lead to courses. The final report will include a white paper about directions for technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, including work on constructive technology assessment.