BE/CNH: Interactions Among Human, Biological, and Physical Processes Within Large Lake Ecosystems

BE/CNH：大型湖泊生态系统内人类、生物和物理过程之间的相互作用

• 批准号: 0410336
• 负责人: David Culver
• 金额: $ 139.99万
• 依托单位: Ohio State University Research Foundation -DO NOT USE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-01 至 2009-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0410336&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Interactions; Among; Human; Biological

Booms in lake-based human activities have consistently followed increases in the quality of large lake ecosystem services, including abundant gamefish, clear water, and uncontaminated water for drinking and swimming. For example, substantial improvements in water quality and clarity in Lake Erie achieved in the 1970s and 1980s through the reduction in external phosphorus loadings from point sources have been followed by a period of lakeside recreational and residential development that extends to the present. More recently, increases in phosphorus concentrations and the frequency of harmful algal blooms in the lake have combined with other biophysical conditions to generate "surprise events," such as the, expansion of the summertime "Dead Zone" and adult gamefish kills. While linkages between the human and biophysical systems clearly are key factors producing these changes, their underlying structural dynamics and the extent to which the linkages have led to fundamental and perhaps irreversible changes in biological and human processes is unknown. This interdisciplinary research project will examine the coupled linkages between lake functioning and lake-related human activities and explore how these couplings generate nonlinear changes in ecological outcomes, such as water quality and fish stocks, and human behavior, including land use and lake-based recreational activities. Of particular interest are the conditions under which coupled linkages lead to bifurcations or other "surprise" outcomes that may not occur in their absence and the influence of fine-scale variations, time-delayed feedbacks, and stochastic processes that may be embedded in the couplings. The objectives of this research are (1) to construct a simple, coarse-scale model of a generic large lake ecosystem with coupled human-biophysical interactions that can be used to examine system dynamics and the role of human-biophysical couplings; (2) to develop a more detailed, fine-scale model by increasing the model's spatial and temporal resolution and, parameterizing the model using Lake Erie data and use this model to test hypotheses regarding the impact of human activities on lake eutrophication and the impact of these ecological changes on land and economic development in the Lake Erie region; and (3) to use this set of models to study the impacts of historical policies and new management strategies of large lakes on both human and biophysical processes. A combination of analytical, statistical, and computer simulation methods, including agent-based modeling, will be used to build these models. Dynamical systems techniques, including numerical simulations and bifurcation analysis, will be used to analyze the models. Much of the historical data on lake dynamics, water quality, fish stocks, land use, and recreational activities are already available. Additional data will be generated using geographical information systems, remote sensing, and household surveys of residents and lake recreational users.The project will provide both scientific and societal benefits. By testing hypotheses regarding the coupled linkages between human and biophysical large lake processes and examining the way in which these interactions influence the self-organization and resiliency of biological and human systems, the project will make an original contribution to the scientific understanding of large lake biocomplexity. The research will make methodological contributions by advancing methods used to study the stability and multiscale properties of complex, coupled systems. By providing a better understanding of how feedbacks occur between lake functioning and human behavioral responses, the results will generate social benefits by providing information to policy makers who seek to protect lake resources while also providing high-quality amenities to people. The project will integrate biocomplexity research and education through the development of a new biocomplexity course; through training a new generation of interdisciplinary biocomplexity researchers; and through incorporation of research ideas and results into K-12 educational materials and programs aimed at policy makers and the broader public. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

随着大型湖泊生态系统服务质量的提高，包括丰富的野鱼、清澈的水和未受污染的饮用水和游泳水，以湖泊为基础的人类活动的繁荣一直在增加。例如，1970年代和1980年代伊利湖通过减少点源的外部磷负荷在水质和清晰度方面取得了实质性的改善，随后一段时期的湖滨娱乐和住宅发展一直延续到现在。最近，湖中磷浓度的增加和有害藻华的频率与其他生物物理条件相结合，产生了“意外事件”，例如夏季“死亡地带”的扩大和成年猎鱼的死亡。虽然人类和生物物理系统之间的联系显然是产生这些变化的关键因素，但其潜在的结构动态以及这种联系在多大程度上导致了生物和人类过程中的根本的、也许是不可逆转的变化是未知的。该跨学科研究项目将研究湖泊功能与湖泊相关人类活动之间的耦合联系，并探索这些耦合如何产生生态结果的非线性变化，如水质和鱼类资源，以及人类行为，包括土地利用和基于湖泊的娱乐活动。特别令人感兴趣的是，耦合联系导致分叉或其他“意外”结果的条件，这些结果在没有它们的情况下可能不会发生，以及可能嵌入耦合中的精细尺度变化、时滞反馈和随机过程的影响。本研究的目标是：(1)构建具有人与生物物理耦合作用的一般大型湖泊生态系统的简单、粗尺度模型，用于研究系统动力学和人与生物物理耦合的作用；(2)利用伊利湖数据，通过提高模型的时空分辨率和参数化模型，建立一个更精细的模型，并利用该模型检验人类活动对湖泊富营养化的影响及其生态变化对伊利湖地区土地和经济发展的影响的假设；(3)利用这组模型研究历史政策和新的大湖管理策略对人类和生物物理过程的影响。将结合分析、统计和计算机模拟方法，包括基于代理的建模，来建立这些模型。动力学系统技术，包括数值模拟和分岔分析，将用于分析模型。许多关于湖泊动态、水质、鱼类资源、土地利用和娱乐活动的历史数据已经可用。将利用地理信息系统、遥感以及对居民和湖泊娱乐使用者的住户调查产生额外的数据。该项目将带来科学效益和社会效益。通过测试人类和大型湖泊生物物理过程之间耦合联系的假设，并检查这些相互作用如何影响生物和人类系统的自组织和弹性，该项目将对大型湖泊生物复杂性的科学理解做出原创性贡献。该研究将通过推进用于研究复杂耦合系统的稳定性和多尺度性质的方法来做出方法学上的贡献。通过更好地了解湖泊功能和人类行为反应之间的反馈是如何发生的，研究结果将为寻求保护湖泊资源的政策制定者提供信息，同时为人们提供高质量的设施，从而产生社会效益。该项目将通过开发一门新的生物复杂性课程，将生物复杂性研究与教育结合起来；通过培养新一代跨学科生物复杂性研究人员；并通过将研究思想和结果纳入针对政策制定者和广大公众的K-12教育材料和项目。该项目得到了2004年度环境生物复杂性特别竞赛的支持，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合动力学。