BE/CNH: Global Effects of Human and Terrestrial Interactions

BE/CNH：人类与陆地相互作用的全球影响

• 批准号: 0410344
• 负责人: John Reilly
• 金额: $ 40万
• 依托单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2004
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2004-09-15 至 2009-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0410344&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Global; Effects; Human; Terrestrial

As moderated by climate and atmospheric composition, the global-scale interactions of human systems and terrestrial systems are complex. Energy use, agricultural practices, and demographics are entwined with the desire of people to improve their well-being and to manage economic growth and its effects through well-meaning but sometimes misdirected policies. The goal of this interdisciplinary research project is to evaluate fundamental interactions between human and terrestrial systems through agriculture and land use, both of which are impacted by forces that are global in nature and moderated by climate and atmospheric composition. The approach that will be used to model these interactions entails use of complex but separate models of human activity, the atmosphere and ocean, terrestrial systems, and sector-by-sector models of economic and human effects. The researchers plan to develop the dynamic linkages needed between a complex global model of the economy and a complex model of terrestrial systems to evaluate these costs and potential feedbacks of changes in atmospheric composition and climate. The proposed work is to link the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM) to dynamically simulate changes in crop productivity driven by environmental change and the economic consequences and changes in land use driven by changes in trade in agriculture and the price of agricultural goods. The work will take advantage of existing capabilities of the two models with some additional improvements needed to make the linkages between them. Principally, this involves further disaggregating the agricultural sector of EPPA and linking the economic data to a supplemental data set on physical land use being developed at the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University. The project also will involve the development of a mosaic approach in the TEM to represent the regions and land uses represented in EPPA. These developments will allow simulation studies of the dynamic linkages among terrestrial systems, land use, the economy, international trade, and economic policy as affected by such changes in climate and atmospheric composition as increasing levels of carbon dioxide and tropospheric ozone.This project will constitute a first attempt to study complex interactions between terrestrial systems and the economy in a fully coupled model at the global scale. Project results will help to inform policies designed to mitigate different environmental and economic problems, showing where policies may complement one another and where they may be in conflict. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY 2004 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

由于受到气候和大气成分的调节，人类系统和陆地系统在全球范围内的相互作用是复杂的。 能源使用、农业实践和人口统计都与人们改善福祉和通过善意但有时误导的政策管理经济增长及其影响的愿望相关联。 这个跨学科研究项目的目标是通过农业和土地利用来评估人类和陆地系统之间的基本相互作用，这两者都受到全球性力量的影响，并受到气候和大气成分的调节。 用于模拟这些相互作用的方法需要使用复杂但独立的人类活动、大气和海洋、陆地系统模型以及经济和人类影响的逐部门模型。 研究人员计划在复杂的全球经济模型和复杂的陆地系统模型之间建立动态联系，以评估这些成本以及大气成分和气候变化的潜在反馈。 拟议的工作是将麻省理工学院的排放预测和政策分析（EPPA）模型与陆地生态系统模型（TEM）联系起来，以动态模拟环境变化驱动的作物生产力变化以及农业贸易和农产品价格变化驱动的经济后果和土地利用变化。 这项工作将利用这两个模型的现有能力，并进行一些必要的额外改进，以便在它们之间建立联系。 这主要涉及进一步分解《环境保护法》的农业部门，并将经济数据与普渡大学全球贸易分析项目正在开发的关于实际土地使用的补充数据集联系起来。 该项目还将涉及TEM中马赛克方法的开发，以代表EPPA中所代表的区域和土地使用。 这些发展将使人们能够模拟研究地球系统、土地使用、经济、国际贸易和经济政策之间的动态联系，这些联系受到气候和大气成分变化的影响，如二氧化碳和对流层臭氧水平的增加，本项目将首次尝试在全球范围内以完全耦合的模式研究地球系统与经济之间的复杂相互作用。 项目成果将有助于为旨在缓解不同环境和经济问题的政策提供信息，表明政策在哪些方面可以相互补充，在哪些方面可能相互冲突。 该项目得到了2004财政年度环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的资助，该竞赛侧重于自然和人类系统耦合的动力学。