Population Dynamics in Variable Environments

在这个项目中，皮亨利·威尔伯通过监测在32个自然池塘中繁殖的18种两栖动物，继续他在不同环境中的种群动态和生活史进化的研究。在三个池塘中对两个物种的所有个体进行跟踪，以明确测量生命率，如存活、繁殖和池塘之间移动的概率。这项研究使用了为该项目开发的软件来识别进出池塘时拍摄的数字照片中的个人，并使用新的统计技术从这些数据中估计生命比率。第二种方法监测所有池塘中所有物种的繁殖尝试和成功变态。环境变化的主要来源是当地的天气，这与每个池塘的水文有明确的联系。自然种群受到许多不同来源的影响，从区域天气系统到对小种群中个体的随机影响，例如繁殖机会或暴露在死亡风险中。重要的是要了解这种变异对种群动态的影响，以便对自然种群的管理和保护做出明智的决定，决定如何保护受保护的物种，为了经济利益而开发种群，或者控制害虫。该项目还为学生提供野外生物学和种群建模方面的培训。

In this project PI Henry Wilbur continues his studies of population dynamics and life history evolution in variable environments by monitoring 18 species of amphibians breeding in 32 natural ponds. All individuals of two species are followed in three ponds to explicitly measure vital rates, such as the probabilities of survival, reproduction, and movement between ponds. This study employs software developed for the project to recognize individuals from digital photographs taken as they move in and out of the pond, and new statistical techniques to estimate vital rates from these data. A second approach monitors breeding attempts and successful metamorphosis of all species in all ponds. The primary source of environmental variation is the local weather that is being linked explicitly to the hydrology of each pond. Natural populations are influenced by many sources of variation from regional weather systems to random effects on individuals in small populations, such as opportunities to reproduce or exposure to mortality risks. It is important to understand the impact of this variation on population dynamics to make wise decisions about the management and conservation of natural populations, to decide how to protect species of conservation concern, to exploit populations for economic gain, or to control pests. This project also serves to train students in field biology and population modeling.