Population Dynamics in Variable Environments

在这个项目中，PI Henry Wilbur通过监测在32个天然池塘中繁殖的18种两栖动物，继续他在可变环境中种群动态和生活史进化的研究。在三个池塘中对两个物种的所有个体进行跟踪，以明确测量生命率，如生存、繁殖和在池塘之间移动的概率。这项研究使用了为该项目开发的软件，通过在池塘进出时拍摄的数码照片来识别个体，并使用新的统计技术从这些数据中估计生命率。第二种方法是监测所有池塘中所有物种的繁殖尝试和成功的蜕变。环境变化的主要来源是当地的天气，这与每个池塘的水文有明确的联系。自然种群受到许多变化来源的影响，从区域天气系统到对小种群个体的随机影响，如繁殖机会或暴露于死亡风险。了解这种变化对种群动态的影响，对自然种群的管理和保护做出明智的决定，决定如何保护受保护的物种，利用种群获取经济利益，或控制害虫，都是很重要的。该项目还有助于培养学生在野外生物学和种群建模方面的能力。

In this project PI Henry Wilbur continues his studies of population dynamics and life history evolution in variable environments by monitoring 18 species of amphibians breeding in 32 natural ponds. All individuals of two species are followed in three ponds to explicitly measure vital rates, such as the probabilities of survival, reproduction, and movement between ponds. This study employs software developed for the project to recognize individuals from digital photographs taken as they move in and out of the pond, and new statistical techniques to estimate vital rates from these data. A second approach monitors breeding attempts and successful metamorphosis of all species in all ponds. The primary source of environmental variation is the local weather that is being linked explicitly to the hydrology of each pond. Natural populations are influenced by many sources of variation from regional weather systems to random effects on individuals in small populations, such as opportunities to reproduce or exposure to mortality risks. It is important to understand the impact of this variation on population dynamics to make wise decisions about the management and conservation of natural populations, to decide how to protect species of conservation concern, to exploit populations for economic gain, or to control pests. This project also serves to train students in field biology and population modeling.