Economic Incentives and Family Formation

如果要将婚姻激励作为改善美国家庭福利的政策工具，就有必要更好地了解个人是如何选择自己的婚姻状况的。从取消“婚姻税”到契约性婚姻法，再到同性婚姻和家庭伴侣福利，解决婚姻和幸福之间联系的政策举措需要对推动联盟形成决定的力量有深刻的理解。然而，我们还不知道这些决定在多大程度上受到所得税和其他可以通过政策改变的经济因素的影响，以及在多大程度上受到家庭背景、态度和其他较不容易操纵的因素的影响。这项研究将为家庭形成的决定因素提供新的证据，重点是法律赋予已婚夫妇的经济得失。结婚后，个人往往会看到他们的所得税负担和福利发生变化，通过配偶的雇主获得医疗保险，并受到州离婚法的约束。这项研究将确定这些得失是否是决定结婚而不是同居或保持单身的重要决定因素。为了确定这些影响，在1979年的全国青年纵向调查中，将跟踪受访者在婚姻状态之间的转变。将收集各州所得税法、离婚法和财产权法、福利计划等参数的数据；这些数据将被用来为每个人或夫妇分配与每个婚姻状况相关的“预期”财务价值。回归分析将是本研究的主要方法。通过不仅考虑这些法律规定的因素，还考虑种族、教育、家庭背景、子女和环境特征，分析将确定每个因素如何影响婚姻状态之间的转变。

If marriage incentives are to be used as policy tools for improving the welfare of American families, it is necessary to gain a better understanding of how individuals choose their marital status. From elimination of the "marriage tax" to covenant marriage laws to gay marriage and domestic partner benefits, policy initiatives that address the link between marriage and well-being require a solid understanding of the forces that drive union-forming decisions. However, we do not yet know the extent to which these decisions are affected by income taxes and other economic factors that can be altered by policy, and the extent to which they are determined by family background, attitudes, and other factors that are less readily manipulated.This research will provide new evidence on the determinants of family formation, with an emphasis on economic gains and losses conferred by law on married couples. Upon marrying, individuals often see changes in their income tax burdens and welfare benefits, gain health insurance through their spouse's employer, and become bound by state divorce law. The study will determine whether such gains and losses are important determinants of the decision to marry rather than cohabit or remain single. To identify these effects, transitions between marital states will be tracked for respondents in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Data will be collected on the parameters of each state's income tax laws, divorce and property rights laws, welfare programs, etc.; these data will be used to assign each individual or couple the "expected" financial value associated with each marital status. Regression analysis will be the main methodology for this research. By considering not only these legally mandated factors but also race, schooling, family background, children, and environmental characteristics, the analysis will determine how each factor affects transitions between marital states.