Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The How, When, and Why of Policy Change: The Case of the Minimum Wage, 1937-2000.

规范民主理论家已经假设了公众偏好和政治结果之间的强烈联系（Dahl 1963,1991）。许多著名的经验主义者进一步证实了这些观点，并提供证据表明政策直接受到人民意愿的影响（Stimson, Erikson, and Mackuen 1995,2002; Page and Shapiro 1983,1992）。与此相反，V.O. Key认为政治家对公众舆论的运动负有主要责任（1961）。在这个框架中，对民意和政策之间协方差的核心解释不在于选民，而在于那些努力将民意推向自己偏好立场的战略政治家。证实民意/情绪和政策变动共同存在的经验证据未能揭示因果关系的方向。大量研究表明，媒体在信息处理和决策方面发挥了工具性作用（Iyengar 1991, Mutz 1998）；另外的研究指出了媒体在政策运动中的影响作用（Page 1996, Kellstedt 2003）。尽管有这些证据，学者们并没有将媒体纳入他们的公众舆论和政策变化模型，研究人员也没有考虑到政策专家的作用。这些相当大的遗漏混淆了机构对选民作出反应的证据。本文试图以最低工资问题为研究对象，探讨政策运动、舆论、媒体和政策专家从最低工资问题产生至今的关系。该学生采用各种统计方法来调查对民主理论至关重要的尚未解决的问题。首先，在国会、媒体、公众和政策专家中，谁影响谁？他在一个动态的背景下解决了这个问题，对政策影响的本质有了新的认识。其次，他考虑了政策变动的时机。也就是说，政策何时以及为何会进入国家议程？主要的方法学家们恳求研究人员注意政治事件的时间（巴特尔斯和布雷迪1993年，博克斯-斯特芬斯迈尔和琼斯2004年）。最后，他分析了政治家和媒体精英的言论及其对政策转变的影响。更广泛的影响：政治科学很少关注修辞问题，然而语言和论证构成了政治说服的本质（Riker 1986）。综上所述，本文增加了对政策运动的影响和变化的力量的理解。

Normative democratic theorists have posited a strong linkage between public preferences and political outcomes (Dahl 1963, 1991). A number of prominent empiricists have furthered these claims, providing evidence that policy is directly influenced by the will of the people (Stimson, Erikson, and Mackuen 1995, 2002; Page and Shapiro 1983, 1992). In contrast, V.O. Key argued that politicians are chiefly responsible for the movement of public opinion (1961). In this framework, the central explanation for the covariance between public opinion and policy lies not with the electorate, but rather strategic politicians who endeavor to move opinion toward their preferred position. Empirical evidence confirming public opinion/mood and policy move conjointly fails to unveil the direction of causality. A significant body of research has demonstrated the instrumental role of the media in information-processing and decision-making (Iyengar 1991, Mutz 1998); additional studies have pointed to the influential role of the media in the movement of policy (Page 1996, Kellstedt 2003). Despite this body of evidence, scholars have not incorporated the media into their models of public opinion and policy change, nor have researchers considered the role of policy experts. These considerable omissions confound the evidence that institutions are responsive to the electorate. This dissertation seeks to explore the relationship between policy movement, public opinion, media, and policy experts using the issue of the minimum wage from the time of its inception to the present. The student employs a variety of statistical methodologies to investigate unresolved questions of central importance to democratic theory. First, among Congress, the media, the public, and policy experts, who influences whom? He addresses this question in a dynamic context, shedding new light on the nature of policy influence. Second, he considers the timing of policy movement. That is, when and why does policy reach the national agenda? Leading methodologists have entreated researchers to pay heed to the timing of political events (Bartels and Brady 1993, Box-Steffensmeier and Jones 2004). Finally, he analyzes the rhetoric of politicians and media elites and its consequences for policy transition.Broader Impact: Little work in political science has focused on the issue of rhetoric, yet language and argumentation constitute the essence of political persuasion (Riker 1986). Taken together, this dissertation adds to the understanding of the forces of influence and change accounting for policy movement.