Explaining Very Low Fertility

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The sharp decline in fertility in many of the world's wealthier countries in recent years has led to reproduction rates that are so low that, in the absence of massive in-migration, they threaten to dramatically reduce national populations and to lead to severe demographic imbalances. These in turn have major economic implications, not least the prospect of a rapidly aging population in which a smaller and smaller proportion of the population is of working age. This project examines one of the most extreme instances of contemporary fertility decline, the case of Italy, by employing an innovative approach bringing together anthropologists, sociologists, and demographers. The Italian case is particularly instructive because it appears to contradict current theories of the conditions that promote very low fertility. These tend to attribute very low fertility either to the impact of women working outside the home (yet in Italy rates of women's work outside the home remain relatively low) or to changes in values away from those centered on the family (yet Italy is by all accounts one of the most heavily family-centered societies in the west). Fieldwork is to be conducted in four Italian cities spread throughout the country, combining participant observation and interviewing, aimed at shedding light on how fertility decisions are currently being made. At the same time, major national Italian social surveys are to be examined to test existing theories and to help formulate a better understanding of the forces that lead to very low fertility. The broader impact of this new knowledge will be to inform citizens and governments of the circumstances in which the world's wealthier countries experience fertility so low that it produces a major economic threat to national well-being. Governments have, with mixed success, sought measures to ensure that fertility remains high enough to prevent such population decline. This project will help identify what approaches are likely to be most successful in preventing population decline.