Collaborative Research: Optimal Rules for Monetary and Fiscal Policy

本课题从经济福利的角度对最佳公共政策的分析做出了贡献。关于税收政策和货币政策的传统文献似乎常常是建立在不相容的、甚至是相互矛盾的基础之上的。一种分析是使用微观经济的、纯粹的真实的模型进行的，并强调尽量减少私人激励措施扭曲的目标;另一种分析是使用宏观经济模型进行的，其中名义变量影响真实的分配，并关注通货膨胀和总体经济活动的稳定。本项目的一个目标是展示如何为这两个调查提供统一的基础，不仅展示这些不同的公共政策目标在正确理解时并不冲突，而且还展示货币和财政当局在理想情况下应该如何考虑传统上与另一个领域相关的考虑因素。这两个领域的最佳政策的一个重要原则是政策应该基于规则，由于私营部门的预期在确定政策效果方面的重要性，人们往往认为，对政策规则的承诺排除了利用政策实现短期稳定的可能性，因此，决策者往往抵制基于规则的决策。本研究旨在展示如何设计政策规则，使政策能够应对意外的干扰，而不允许与自由裁量政策相关的偏见。根据“目标确定规则”，政策当局致力于在某些经济变量的预测路径之间建立某种关系，而不事先确定其工具所需的视国家情况而定的调整;许多中央银行的通货膨胀预测目标确定程序就是一个例子。本研究旨在澄清中央银行理想情况下应该实施的目标规则的形式，并确定目标规则对财政政策的有用性。它还将讨论多个政策当局之间的协调在何种程度上是可取的。更广泛的影响。拟议的研究旨在澄清货币政策和税收政策领域的公共政策所应依据的原则，以便最好地服务于经济效率和宏观经济稳定的目标。这项研究的结果将不仅在学术研究人员中传播，而且还将传播给政策制定者，特别是美国和国外的中央银行以及国际货币基金组织等国际组织。该研究还将与教学，特别是在研究生水平，调查人员的整合，预计研究生研究助理将介绍重要的研究技能和自己的潜在研究课题。

This project contributes to the analysis of optimal public policy from the standpoint of economic welfare. The traditional literatures on tax policy and on monetary policy often seem to be based on incompatible, possibly contradictory foundations. One analysis is conducted using microeconomic, purely real models, and emphasizes the goal of minimizing distortions of private incentives; the other is conducted using macroeconomic models in which nominal variables affect real allocations, and is concerned with stabilization of inflation and of aggregate economic activity. A goal of this project is to show how unified foundations can be provided for both inquiries, showing not only that these distinct goals of public policy are not in conflict when properly understood, but also how both monetary and fiscal authorities should, ideally, take into account considerations traditionally associated with the other domain.An important principle of optimal policy in both domains is that policy should be rule-based, rather than purely discretionary, owing to the importance of private-sector anticipations in determining the effects of policy. Commitment to a policy rule is often thought to preclude the use of policy for short-run stabilization, and rule-based policymaking is often resisted by policymakers on this ground. This research aims to show instead how policy rules can be designed, which allow policy to respond to unanticipated disturbances, without allowing the biases associated with discretionary policy. Under a "targeting rule", a policy authority is committed to achieve a certain relationship among the projected paths of certain economic variables, without defining in advance the required state-contingent adjustments of its instruments; the inflation-forecast targeting procedures of many central banks provide an example. This research seeks both to clarify the form of targeting rule that should ideally be implemented by a central bank, and to establish the usefulness of targeting rules for fiscal policy as well. It will also address the degree to which coordination between multiple policy authorities is desirable. Broader impacts. The proposed research aims to clarify the principles upon which public policy should be based, in the areas of both monetary policy and tax policy, in order to best serve the goals of economic efficiency and macroeconomic stability. The results of this research will be disseminated, not only among academic researchers, but to policymakers as well - in particular, to central banks both in the U.S. and abroad, and to international organizations such as the IMF. The research will also be integrated with the teaching, especially at the graduate level, of the investigators, and it is expected that graduate research assistants will be introduced to important research skills and potential research topics of their own.