Collaborative Research: Short Cycle Surrogate Based Design Optimization

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Engineering systems are usually designed using costly computer simulations of their response to environmental input. Designer typically perform dozens to hundreds simulations and construct an approximation--called surrogate--to the response as function of design parameters. The surrogate is used to search for a candidate optimum design completing a cycle of design. For improved accuracy, the cycle of simulation, surrogate construction, and optimization is repeated in a smaller range of design parameters near the candidate optimum. Each cycle can require many days, and so typically only few design cycles are performed. Unfortunately, there is no formal methodology to help designers decide when to stop; the objective of the proposal is to develop such methodology. The main task of the proposal is to use statistical analysis to estimate the probability of substantial improvement in system performance if another cycle is undertaken. Also, we propose using multiple alternate surrogates for developing confidence in these statistical estimates. Given a probability, a designer can decide whether expected improvement in performance is worth the extra time and money of another design cycle. This approach will be applicable to improve the design process in a wide range of industries, since almost every industry makes use of surrogate based design optimization.