Forward and Inverse Modeling of Rupture Dynamics in Three Dimensions

摘要EAR0003275（PH #23x）标题：三个地震带中破裂动力学的正演和反演模型PI：Kim Olsen，圣巴巴拉加州大学地壳研究所拟议的研究是一种综合方法，可显著提高我们在地震破裂动力学领域的知识。这部作品由三部分组成。第一部分是开发一种方法，用于在横向和垂直非均匀三维介质和精确边界条件下对弯曲或多段断层几何形状的动态破裂传播进行灵活有效的建模。这种方法将允许充分大规模的动态建模的统计数据的经常性破裂系统的任意形状的故障。在这里，我们将结合联合收割机的几个数值方法的最灵活和有效的功能。第二部分是继续正在进行的努力，定义的临界参数和条件，描述动态破裂时开始，传播和停止。这涉及到一个非均匀应力场中的动态破裂速度的变化的分析，特别是，推导表达式和数值估计的参数产生破裂传播与观察一致。第三部分将研究反演大地震的摩擦力、应力或断裂能的可行性，这些参数包含有关破裂历史的关键信息。我们将描述反演的局限性和准确性，并尝试将该方法应用于选定的大型，记录良好的地震。拟议研究的三个部分都指向该项目的最终目标，即更好地了解地震为什么开始，传播和逮捕。 这种认识可能导致未来成功地预测地震，从而减少生命和财产损失。

Abstract for proposal EAR0003275 (PH #23x)Title: Forward and Inverse Modeling of Rupture Dynamics in Three DimensionsPI: Kim Olsen, Institute for Crustal Studies, University of California at Santa BarbaraThe proposed research is an integrated approach to significantly advance our knowledge in the field of earthquake rupture dynamics. The work consists of three parts. The first part is the development of a method for flexible and efficient modeling of dynamic rupture propagation on curved or multi-segmented fault geometries with radiation in a laterally and vertically heterogeneous three-dimensional medium and accurate boundary conditions. This method will allow fully large-scale dynamic modeling of the statistics of recurrent ruptures on systems of arbitrarily-shaped faults. Here, we will combine the most flexible and efficient features of several numerical methods. The second part is a continuation of ongoing efforts on defining the critical parameters and conditions describing when dynamic rupture start, propagate, and stop. This involves an analysis of the variation of dynamic rupture velocity in a heterogeneous stress field and in particular, deriving expressions for and numerically estimating the parameters generating rupture propagation in agreement with observations. The third part will examine the feasibility of inverting for the friction, stress, or fracture energy, parameters containing key information about the rupture history, for large earthquakes. We will describe the limitations and accuracy of the inversion, and attempt to apply the method to selected large, well-recorded earthquakes. The three parts of the proposed research all lead towards the ultimate goal of the project, namely to better our understanding of why do earthquakes start, propagate and arrest. Such understanding may lead to successful prediction of earthquakes in the future, thereby mitigating the loss of life and property.