Collaborative Research: Environmental Variability, Bowhead Whale Distributions, and Inupiat Subsistence Whaling - Linkages and Resilience of an Alaskan Coastal System

大气、海冰、海洋、弓头鲸和原住民捕鲸之间的耦合是北阿拉斯加海岸物理-生物-人类系统的基础。鲸鱼的迁徙路线和栖息地的利用由浮游动物的聚集决定，而浮游动物的聚集是由海洋条件驱动的，而海洋条件又取决于气候条件。成功的狩猎取决于环境和社会因素之间的相互作用，这些因素每年都会有所不同，并由体制外的力量驱动。这套复杂的环境-鲸鱼-人类因素构成了一个既容易受到全球气候变化影响，也容易受到人类造成的变化影响的系统。这项建议旨在确定和理解这一系统中大气、海洋和人类组成部分内部和之间的复杂联系、机制和相互作用。还将调查这些组件和整个系统对外部环境变化所造成的变量强迫的响应和恢复能力。这项工作是高度跨学科的，专注于阿拉斯加沿海相互关联的海洋-人类系统，特别是集中在阿拉斯加的巴罗附近。使用了四种不同但高度相关的方法来理解该系统：1)生物和物理海洋模型，以确定锋面和涡流形成和浮游生物聚集的机制，描述来自外部的环境强迫对当地海洋的影响，并了解外部强迫对捕鲸成功的较长期、过去和未来的变化，2)高分辨率野外采样，以证明物理特征和相关生物浓度的存在，并验证模拟，3)评估巴罗自给性狩猎经济和养殖的复原力和脆弱性，以及4)综合模拟的海洋和气候条件和关于鲸鱼位置、摄食、和收获成功，以评估鲸鱼-海洋-人类系统对环境变化的韧性和脆弱性。固有优点：在地方尺度上，研究结果将使人们更好地了解影响自然资源的因素，证明发现和应用于弓头鲸管理政策问题之间的联系。因努皮特人社区的社会结构和结构与捕鲸传统密切相关，特别容易受到环境变化和人为压力的影响。在更广泛的范围内，这项研究将解决多种物理、生物和人类因素如何在一个可能受到环境变异性严重影响的复杂自然系统中联系在一起。该区域气候变化的生物地球化学和物理表现(如冰的减少、海洋哺乳动物迁徙的变化和生态系统结构的变化)将对当地人类与北极生态系统的联系产生后果，从而影响狩猎成功、旅行的便利性以及维持生计和现金经济的相对重要性，并代表对全球碳循环产生重要影响的广大北极的生态系统。所有这些主题都与北极环境变化(SEARCH)计划的研究密切相关。这个项目是前沿的，因为它吸收了从海洋学到社会科学的多学科研究，以解决只有使用这种多方面、综合的方法才能成功回答的问题。更广泛的影响：为该项目提出的与当地相关的科学对巴罗社区和邻近村庄、IWC、NOAA和MMS的政策制定者以及更广泛的公众具有重大兴趣。学术研究人员与联邦机构和地区野生动物管理机构的工作人员之间的跨学科合作伙伴关系是对人力和社会资本的投资，以加强更广泛的研究基础设施。气候多变性及其对进入北冰洋和在北冰洋内流动的影响对全球和地方商业和国家安全具有更广泛的影响。拟议的高中实习计划涉及土著人民的参与，他们在科学和技术领域往往代表不足。高中学生和教师通过ARMADA项目的更广泛参与将向下一代科学家传达对实地研究、北冰洋生态系统以及气候变化对该生态系统的重要性的理解。

The coupling between atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, bowhead whales, and subsistence whaling by the Native human populations is fundamental to the physical-biological-human systems of the Northern Alaska Coast. Whale migration routes and habitat use are determined by zooplankton aggregations, which are driven by oceanographic conditions, which depend on the climatic regime. Successful hunting depends on interactions between environmental and societal factors that vary each year and are driven by forces originating outside the system. This complex suite of environment-whale-human factors comprises a system that is vulnerable both to global climate and human generated change. This proposal seeks to identify and understand the complex linkages, mechanisms, and interactions within and between the atmosphere, ocean, and human components of this system. The response and resilience of these components and the system as a whole to variable forcing by external environmental change will also be investigated. The work is highly interdisciplinary and focuses on the linked ocean-human systems of coastal Alaska, concentrating specifically near Barrow, Alaska. Four distinct yet highly interrelated approaches to understanding the system are used: 1) Biological and physical ocean modeling to identify mechanisms of frontal and eddy formation and plankton aggregation, to describe the effects of environmental forcing from outside on the local ocean, and to understand longer term, past and future variability in outside forcing on whaling success, 2) High resolution field sampling to demonstrate presence of physical features and associated biological concentrations and to validate modeling, 3) Assessment of the resilience and vulnerability of the subsistence hunting economy and culture in Barrow, and 4) Retrospective analysis synthesizing modeled ocean and climate conditions with available information on whale location, feeding, and harvest success to asses the resilience and vulnerability of the whale-ocean-human system to environmental change. Intrinsic Merit: On the local scale, the results of the research will provide a greater understanding of the factors influencing a natural resource, demonstrating linkages between discovery and application to policy issues of bowhead whale management. The social structure and fabric of the Inupiat communities are intimately linked to the whaling tradition and are particularly vulnerable to both environmental change and human-generated pressures. On the broader scale, the research will address how multiple physical, biological, and human factors are linked in a complex natural system that may be critically affected by environmental variability. Biogeochemical and physical manifestations of climate change in this region (e.g., ice reduction, changes in marine mammal migration and ecosystem structure) will have consequences for local human linkages to the Arctic ecosystem by influencing hunting success, ease of travel, and the relative importance of subsistence and cash economies and are representative of those of the broader Arctic with important impacts on global carbon cycling. All these topics are highly relevant to the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) program. This project is cutting-edge in that it assimilates research of multiple disciplines from oceanography to social science to address questions that can only successfully be answered using this multi-faceted, integrative approach. Broader Impacts: The locally relevant science proposed for this project is of significant interest to the Barrow community and neighboring villages, to policy makers at the IWC, NOAA, and MMS, and to the broader public. The interdisciplinary collaborative partnership between academic researchers and staff at a federal agency and at a regional wildlife management agency is an investment in human and social capital that enhances the broader research infrastructure. Climate variability and its effects on access to and mobility within the Arctic Ocean have broader impacts for global and local commerce and national security. The proposed high school internship program involves the participation of native people who are often underrepresented in the fields of science and technology. Broader involvement of high school students and teachers through the ARMADA program will communicate to the scientists of the next generation understanding of field research, of the Arctic Ocean ecosystem, and of the importance of climate variability to this ecosystem.