SGER GOALI - Collaborative Research: Forecasting and Proactive Management of Obsolescence for Sustainment-Dominated Systems

Goali SGER协作项目旨在探索工业界和学术界如何合作，以确定如何结合多种资源，通过预测和管理来影响电子零部件的主动报废。许多“高科技”可持续发展主导系统面临的最大问题之一是技术过时，而没有哪种技术比电子部件过时更能体现这个问题。如果开发和应用通过过时驱动的产品生命周期规划进行预测的方法，预计有可能节省大量资源。该项目将涉及三个高风险、高影响的活动：1)在社会、政治、经济和环境因素的不确定性下预测电子部件的报废日期；2)确定报废的最佳缓解方法；3)根据预测管理系统的重新设计。更广泛的影响是，如果预测降低了不确定性和风险，则预期较长期的成本避免将成为经济决策中更重要的驱动因素。这是一种高风险活动，因为电子行业等行业的社会和技术模式的整合本身就很复杂。

This GOALI SGER Collaborative project is to explore how industry and academia can collaborate to determine how multiple sources of resources can be combined to impact proactive obsolescence of electronic parts through forecasting and management. One of the most significant problems facing many "high-tech" sustainment-dominated systems is technology obsolescence, and no technology typifies the problem more clearly than electronic part obsolescence. It is expected that substantial savings in resources are possible if methods of forecasting through obsolescence-driven life cycle planning of products were developed and applied. This project will involve three high risk, high impact activities:1) Forecasting electronic part obsolescence by predicting the date of discontinuance under uncertainty of social, political, economic, and environmental factors.2) Determine the best mitigation approach upon obsolescence, and3) Manage the redesign of systems based upon the forecast.The broader impact is the expectation that longer term cost avoidance can be a more significant driver in economic decision-making if the forecasting lowers the uncertainty and risk. This is a high risk activity because of the inherent complexity is integrating across social and technological models for a sector such as the electronics sector.