Collaborative Research: WCR: Is Deforestation Changing the Hydrologic Climate and Vegetation Dynamics of the Amazon?

在这项合作工作中，pi将测试亚马孙流域长期水文气候因森林砍伐而发生变化的假设。建立区域大气-生物圈-水圈耦合模式。该模型的制定解决了亚马逊森林砍伐早期研究的重要局限性，通过(i)模拟观测到的土地覆盖变化模式，（ii）模拟植被、大气和地表水文之间相互作用的长期（十年至世纪尺度）后果，（iii）纳入森林边缘效应（与森林牧场-界面相关的植被动态的亚网格尺度变异性），（iv）以足够高的空间分辨率运行，以明确模拟重要水文气候过程的中尺度变化，如由森林砍伐的精细尺度模式引起的云的形成。以下三个子假设将被评估：假设1：观测到的森林砍伐模式正在改变亚马逊河流域的长期水文气候。假设2：变化的水文气候同时改变了该地区短期（小时-季节-年）和长期（年-年）植被动态。假设3：由水文气候变化引起的陆地表面变化，反过来，将气候和水文循环转向更干旱的状态。然后，约束模型将用于预测该地区未来的水文气候和植被状态。这项研究的结果将通过网页和链接传播到现有的亚马逊研究项目。它计划为波士顿的高中准备一个推广项目。研究生和本科生将参与研究。

In this collaborative work, the PIs will test the hypothesis that the long-term hydrologic climate of Amazonia is changing as a result of deforestation. A regional coupled atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere model will be developed. The model's formulation addresses important limitations in earlier studies of Amazonian deforestation by (i) simulating observed patterns of land-cover change, (ii) simulating the long-term (decadal-to-century scale) consequences of the interaction between the vegetation, atmosphere and land-surface hydrology, (iii) incorporating forest edge effects (sub-grid scale variability in vegetation dynamics associated with forest pasture-interfaces), and (iv) running at spatial resolutions high enough to simulate explicitly mesoscale variability in important hydrologic climate processes such as cloud formation that are caused by fine scale patterns of deforestation. The following three sub-hypotheses will be evaluated:Hypothesis 1: Observed patterns of deforestation are changing the long-term hydrologic climate of Amazonia.Hypothesis 2: The changing hydrologic climate is changing both short (hourly-seasonal-yearly) and long-term (yearly-decadal) vegetation dynamics across the region.Hypothesis 3: Changes in the land surface arising from the changing hydrologic climate are, in turn, shifting the climate and hydrologic cycle towards a more arid state.The constrained model will then be used to predict the future state of the hydrologic climate and vegetation of the region.The results from this study will be disseminated through webpages and links to existing Amazon research programs. It is planned to prepare an outreach program for high schools in Boston. Graduate and undergraduate students will be involved in the research.