Collaborative Research: WCR: Is Deforestation Changing the Hydrologic Climate and Vegetation Dynamics of the Amazon?

在这项合作工作中，PI将测试亚马逊河流域的长期水文气候因森林砍伐而发生变化的假设。将建立一个区域大气-生物圈-水圈耦合模型。该模型的公式解决了早期亚马逊森林砍伐研究中的重要局限性，方法是（i）模拟观察到的土地覆盖变化模式，（ii）模拟长期森林覆盖变化模式，（iii）模拟长期森林覆盖变化模式，（iv）模拟长期森林覆盖变化模式。（十年至世纪尺度）植被、大气和地表水文学之间相互作用的后果，㈢纳入森林边缘效应（与森林牧场界面有关的植被动态的次网格尺度变化），和（四）运行在足够高的空间分辨率，以明确模拟重要的水文气候过程中的中尺度变化，都是由精细的森林砍伐模式造成的将评估以下三个子假设：假设1：观测到的森林砍伐模式正在改变亚马逊河流域的长期水文气候。（每小时-季节-每年）和长期假设3：水文气候变化引起的地表变化反过来又是，将气候和水文循环转向更干旱的状态。然后，将使用受约束的模型来预测未来的水文气候和植被状况。这项研究的结果将通过网页和现有亚马逊研究方案的链接传播。计划为波士顿的高中准备一个推广方案。研究生和本科生将参与这项研究。

In this collaborative work, the PIs will test the hypothesis that the long-term hydrologic climate of Amazonia is changing as a result of deforestation. A regional coupled atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere model will be developed. The model's formulation addresses important limitations in earlier studies of Amazonian deforestation by (i) simulating observed patterns of land-cover change, (ii) simulating the long-term (decadal-to-century scale) consequences of the interaction between the vegetation, atmosphere and land-surface hydrology, (iii) incorporating forest edge effects (sub-grid scale variability in vegetation dynamics associated with forest pasture-interfaces), and (iv) running at spatial resolutions high enough to simulate explicitly mesoscale variability in important hydrologic climate processes such as cloud formation that are caused by fine scale patterns of deforestation. The following three sub-hypotheses will be evaluated:Hypothesis 1: Observed patterns of deforestation are changing the long-term hydrologic climate of Amazonia.Hypothesis 2: The changing hydrologic climate is changing both short (hourly-seasonal-yearly) and long-term (yearly-decadal) vegetation dynamics across the region.Hypothesis 3: Changes in the land surface arising from the changing hydrologic climate are, in turn, shifting the climate and hydrologic cycle towards a more arid state.The constrained model will then be used to predict the future state of the hydrologic climate and vegetation of the region.The results from this study will be disseminated through webpages and links to existing Amazon research programs. It is planned to prepare an outreach program for high schools in Boston. Graduate and undergraduate students will be involved in the research.