Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Reconstructions for the Late Eighteenth and Early Nineteenth Centuries

十八世纪末十九世纪初大西洋盆地热带气旋重建

• 批准号: 0502105
• 负责人: Cary Mock
• 金额: $ 28.95万
• 依托单位: University South Carolina Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-10-01 至 2009-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0502105&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Atlantic; Basin; Tropical; Cyclone; Reconstructions

This award provides funds to support the collection and evaluation of modern tropical cyclone records from the Atlantic Basin from the present to around 1851. Despite the current understanding of Atlantic hurricane variability based on the modern record, a longer temporal perspective would prove invaluable in order to improve hurricane prediction, assess land falling probabilities and periodicities of hurricanes, and relate tropical cyclone activity to different forcing mechanisms of climatic change. The characteristics of prominent interannual and decadal climatic forcing mechanisms likely differed through time. Vast amounts of high-resolution documentary data from different colonial archives extending back several centuries have not yet been seriously utilized for paleo-hurricane reconstruction. This high-resolution source consists of records such as early instrumental records, ship logs, diaries, and newspapers. The researchers will launch a comprehensive effort to reconstruct Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity, at daily to sub-daily resolution, from the eighteenth century to:1) reconstruct annual counts and tracks of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones from early newspapers, ship logbooks, diaries, and early instrumental records, with an emphasis on the period 1800-1850. 2) reconstruct continuous time series of land falling tropical cyclones for selected locations that possess rich documentary records back to the mid 1700s. These locations are North Carolina, Georgia, North East Florida, Southern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle, eastern Massachusetts, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. 3) reconstruct the synoptic-scale circulation patterns for selected extreme active land falling years in the Atlantic Basin by examining all available instrumental, documentary, and colonial ship logbook archives over eastern North America and the western Atlantic. 4) examine the relationships between the reconstructed tropical cyclone activity with forcing factors of climatic change. The researchers will examine how El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the thermohaline circulation affect tropical cyclone activity by integrating paleoclimatic reconstructions (e.g., from tree-rings, corals) with paleo-hurricane reconstructions. The results of the research will be relevant to the interests of coastal zone scientists and planners, habitat restoration groups, land managers businesses concerned with managing risk, and coastal property owners in providing long-term historical climate analyses. The project will also provide a unique learning and training opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students.

该奖项提供资金，以支持从现在到1851年左右从大西洋盆地收集和评估现代热带气旋记录。尽管目前根据现代记录对大西洋飓风的可变性有了了解，但更长的时间视角将被证明是非常宝贵的，以便改进飓风预测，评估飓风登陆的概率和周期，并将热带气旋活动与气候变化的不同强迫机制联系起来。显着的年际和年代际气候强迫机制的特征可能随着时间的不同而不同。追溯到几个世纪前的不同殖民档案中的大量高分辨率文件数据尚未被认真用于古飓风重建。这个高分辨率的信息源包括早期仪器记录、航海日志、日记和报纸等记录。研究人员将启动一项全面的工作，重建大西洋盆地热带气旋活动，从每天到次日的分辨率，从18世纪到：1)根据早期报纸、船舶航海日志、日记和早期仪器记录，重建大西洋盆地热带气旋的年度计数和路径，重点是1800-1850年。2)重建自18世纪中期以来具有丰富文献记录的选定地点的登陆热带气旋的连续时间序列。这些地区是北卡罗来纳州、佐治亚州、佛罗里达州东北部、路易斯安那州南部、佛罗里达州狭长地带、马萨诸塞州东部、巴哈马群岛和百慕大群岛。3)通过检查北美东部和大西洋西部所有可用的仪器、文献和殖民船舶航海日志档案，重建大西洋盆地选定的极端活跃陆地下降年的天气尺度环流模式。4)研究重建的热带气旋活动与气候变化强迫因子的关系。研究人员将研究厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和温盐环流如何通过将古气候重建(例如，从树轮、珊瑚重建)与古飓风重建相结合来影响热带气旋活动。研究结果将与海岸带科学家和规划者、栖息地恢复团体、关心风险管理的土地管理公司以及沿海业主提供长期历史气候分析的利益相关。该项目还将为本科生和研究生提供一个独特的学习和培训机会。