Statistical Methods for Regime Shifts
政权更替的统计方法
基本信息
- 批准号:0515639
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 19.3万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Continuing Grant
- 财政年份:2005
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2005-09-01 至 2008-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
This project will develop and assess formal statistical methods for the retrospective identification of a regime shift in time series data of the abundances of interacting populations in an ecosystem. It will further develop and assess formal statistical methods for determining whether such an ecosystem is reactive (i.e., whether the dynamics of the system would amplify a perturbation). Well-established principles of statistics will be applied and based on a general model of the dynamics of a system of interacting populations. The performance of these methods will be assessed through a series of simulation experiments and with their application to previously published data sets. The possibility that a perturbation can cause a natural ecosystem to undergo a regime shift (i.e., an abrupt shift from one locally stable steady state to another) has important implications for management. To develop an understanding of this phenomenon in real systems, it is necessary to be able to distinguish between regime shifts and other types of variability. The first objective of this project is to provide such methods, without which scientific progress in support of management in this area is difficult. The second objective of the project is to develop methods for determining whether a system is reactive (i.e., capable of amplifying a perturbation). This is important because reactivity represents one possible "route to regime shift." Knowing whether a system is reactive is therefore important to managers seeking to avoid a regime shift. This work will help inform decision-making in fisheries management and conservation. The results of this project will be published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature and MATLAB routines for applying the methods will be made freely available.
该项目将开发和评估正式的统计方法,用于回顾性识别生态系统中相互作用种群丰度的时间序列数据的政权转变。 它将进一步开发和评估正式的统计方法,以确定这样的生态系统是否具有反应性(即系统的动态是否会放大扰动)。 将应用完善的统计原理,并基于相互作用群体系统动态的一般模型。这些方法的性能将通过一系列模拟实验及其对先前发布的数据集的应用来评估。 扰动可能导致自然生态系统发生政权转变(即从一种局部稳定的稳定状态突然转变为另一种稳定状态),这对管理具有重要意义。为了理解真实系统中的这种现象,有必要能够区分状态转变和其他类型的可变性。该项目的首要目标是提供此类方法,如果没有这些方法,支持该领域管理的科学进步就很难实现。该项目的第二个目标是开发确定系统是否具有反应性(即能够放大扰动)的方法。 这很重要,因为反应性代表了一种可能的“政权转变途径”。因此,了解系统是否具有反应性对于寻求避免制度转变的管理者来说非常重要。 这项工作将有助于为渔业管理和保护决策提供信息。该项目的结果将发表在经过同行评审的科学文献中,并且应用这些方法的 MATLAB 例程将免费提供。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Andrew Solow其他文献
On inference about the introduction time of an introduced species with an application to the pine marten on Mull
- DOI:
10.1016/j.biocon.2012.12.026 - 发表时间:
2013-03-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:
- 作者:
Andrew Solow;Sugoto Roy;Christina Bell;Jo Milborrow;David Roberts - 通讯作者:
David Roberts
Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, emBotryllus schlosseri/em
地理因素与发育可塑性影响金星海鞘(Botryllus schlosseri)幼体后的热耐受性
- DOI:
10.1016/j.jtherbio.2023.103763 - 发表时间:
2024-01-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:2.900
- 作者:
Zachary Tobias;Andrew Solow;Carolyn Tepolt - 通讯作者:
Carolyn Tepolt
The Most Recent Cascadia Earthquake and Native American Narratives
- DOI:
10.1007/s11004-019-09783-y - 发表时间:
2019-01-24 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:3.600
- 作者:
Andrew Solow;Andrew Beet;Shauna McManus - 通讯作者:
Shauna McManus
Andrew Solow的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Andrew Solow', 18)}}的其他基金
International Council for Exploration of the Sea: Travel Support for Academic Participants, 2014-2017
国际海洋探索理事会:2014-2017 年学术参与者的旅行支持
- 批准号:
1456314 - 财政年份:2014
- 资助金额:
$ 19.3万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
International Council for Exploration of the Sea: Travel Support for Academic Participants, 2011-2013
国际海洋探索理事会:2011-2013 年学术参与者的旅行支持
- 批准号:
1114142 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 19.3万 - 项目类别:
Continuing Grant
Graph Theory: Confluences in Molecular Biology and the Physical Sciences
图论:分子生物学和物理科学的融合
- 批准号:
0109738 - 财政年份:2001
- 资助金额:
$ 19.3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
A Meeting to Celebrate the 35th Anniversary of the Atiyah-Bott Theorem
庆祝阿蒂亚-博特定理 35 周年的会议
- 批准号:
9974395 - 财政年份:1999
- 资助金额:
$ 19.3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
U.S. GLOBEC: A Retrospective Analysis of Variability in Zooplankton Composition on Georges Bank and the Northwest Atlantic
美国 GLOBEC:乔治浅滩和西北大西洋浮游动物组成变异性的回顾性分析
- 批准号:
9632738 - 财政年份:1996
- 资助金额:
$ 19.3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Workshop: Food Web Structure and Dynamics in Marine, Terrestrial and Freshwater Environments, Summer 1995 at Cornell University
研讨会:海洋、陆地和淡水环境中的食物网结构和动力学,1995 年夏季,康奈尔大学
- 批准号:
9510113 - 财政年份:1995
- 资助金额:
$ 19.3万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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