The Consequences of Foreign Military Intervention in Developing Countries, 1960-2005

1960-2005 年外国军事干预对发展中国家的后果

• 批准号: 0518294
• 负责人: Emizet Kisangani
• 金额: $ 8.71万
• 依托单位: Kansas State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-07-15 至 2007-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0518294&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Consequences; Foreign; Military; Intervention; Developing

Foreign military intervention is one of the most important political phenomena in theworld today. As major wars have declined in frequency over recent decades and the efficacy ofcostly and time-consuming economic sanctions is questioned, foreign military intervention seemsto have become a sine qua non of modern statecraft. Despite the growing prevalence of foreignmilitary intervention, we still have little understanding of the type of impacts this typically lowscale force has in target countries. As the recent American involvement in Iraq underscores, FMI can have major ramifications in target states. This project takes an initial step towardunderstanding the effects that foreign military intervention has on developing states' governinginstitutions, their economic performance, and their citizens' quality of life. To date, no systematic, large N studies of foreign military intervention impact on target states have been undertaken.Given its growing frequency and importance, this is a noteworthy gap in the literature. Of course,a study of intervention impacts faces numerous obstacles. The literature on the rarer and muchmore heavily studied phenomenon of war underscores some of these barriers. Because of theinertia that typically characterizes research programs, the bulk of extant research on war focuseson its initiation. Many scholars hope that by grasping how wars break out, they can also learn how to prevent them. The result is that scant analytical energy has been spent into developingknowledge of war consequences. Broadly accepted theories on war impacts are scarce.Methodologically, there is little consensus on how far into the postwar period analysts should look for war impacts, or which of the myriad of different impacts should be given emphasis.Wars are obviously easier to spot and to study than foreign military interventions. Theyare larger and bloodier. They wreak greater havoc on national infrastructure and populations. Ifwar impact studies are in their infancy, it might seem that the chances of building a systematicunderstanding of intervention consequences are remote. After all, intervention studies tend tofollow the example set by the more prominent study of war. Except for a growing literature onthird party interventions in civil conflicts, intervention studies also tend to focus on initiation. The investigators, however, believe that the study of intervention consequences is not only feasible, it is overdue. With a consistent, reliable operationalization of the concept of foreign military intervention and carefully collected data on the phenomenon, intervention impacts can be studied systematically. What's more, since intervention is more a varied phenomenon than war, they should be able to ascertain a range of different types of impacts and construct typologies. Unlike war, foreign military intervention can be launched in support of, rather than opposition to, target governments. It can be taken for humanitarian reasons, to rescue beleaguered nationals in troubled foreign lands, or simply to chase bands of rebels across borders. In other cases, it can challenge and even seek to oust the target government. Where they leave a measurable imprint, such varied military missions should have vastly different social, political, and economic ramifications for target societies. The most daunting obstacle for the project has yet to be addressed: data. The funding from the National Science Foundation is to update the most frequently used data on foreignmilitary intervention, Pearson and Baumman's (1993) International Military Intervention (IMI)dataset. IMI is a broad measure of low-scale force that records all verifiable cases when nationaltroops or forces move into another country's territory to pursue political, economic, or strategicobjectives. The IMI data housed in ICPSR only covers the years 1946 to 1988. One of thisproject's PIs has extended the data to 1996. They have funding to extend it further to 2005. Theywill complete the update in one calendar year, starting 1 June 2005 and ending 31 May 2006. Thedata will be deposited at ICPSR. Its benefits will thus outlive the current project on interventionconsequences. The data will have a broad impact on the fields of comparative politics and IR byproviding a reliable, accessible dataset on the most prevalent type of military force in use today.Given the wide variety of activities recorded, scholars from across the globe can use the data totest a host of different theories and relationships. The intellectual merit of the project lies in thefact that it will help bring understanding to a phenomenon that will be prevalent and may have far reaching consequences in coming decades, foreign military intervention.

外国军事干预是当今世界最重要的政治现象之一。随着近几十年来主要战争的频率下降，代价高昂且耗时的经济制裁的有效性受到质疑，外国军事干预似乎已成为现代治国方略的必要条件。尽管外国军事干预越来越普遍，但我们仍然对这种通常规模较小的部队在目标国家产生的影响类型知之甚少。正如美国最近在伊拉克的介入所强调的那样，FMI可能会对目标国家产生重大影响。这个项目在了解外国军事干预对发展中国家的政府机构、经济表现和公民生活质量的影响方面迈出了第一步。到目前为止，还没有关于外国军事干预对目标国家影响的系统、大规模的研究，鉴于其日益频繁和重要，这在文献中是一个值得注意的空白。当然，对干预影响的研究面临着许多障碍。关于战争现象的文献更加罕见，研究也更加深入，强调了其中的一些障碍。由于研究项目的典型特征是惯性，现有的大部分关于战争的研究都集中在战争的发动上。许多学者希望，通过掌握战争是如何爆发的，他们也可以学习如何预防战争。其结果是，用于发展战争后果知识的分析能量很少。关于战争影响的广泛接受的理论很少。在方法论上，对于战后分析师应该在多大程度上寻找战争影响，或者应该强调无数不同影响中的哪一种，几乎没有共识。战争显然比外国军事干预更容易发现和研究。它们更大，更血腥。它们对国家基础设施和人口造成了更大的破坏。如果战争影响研究还处于初级阶段，那么建立对干预后果的系统理解的可能性似乎微乎其微。毕竟，干预研究倾向于遵循更著名的战争研究所树立的榜样。除了越来越多的关于第三方干预国内冲突的文献，干预研究也倾向于集中在启动方面。然而，调查人员认为，对干预后果的研究不仅是可行的，而且是早就应该进行的。只要外国军事干预的概念得到一致、可靠的运作，并仔细收集关于这一现象的数据，就可以系统地研究干预的影响。更重要的是，由于干预更多的是一种不同的现象，而不是战争，他们应该能够确定一系列不同类型的影响并构建类型。与战争不同，外国军事干预可以是为了支持、而不是反对目标政府。出于人道主义原因，可以采取这种行动，在动荡不安的外国领土上营救陷入困境的国民，或者简单地将叛军团伙赶到边境另一边。在其他情况下，它可以挑战甚至寻求推翻目标政府。在它们留下可衡量的印记的地方，这种不同的军事任务应该对目标社会产生截然不同的社会、政治和经济后果。该项目最令人望而生畏的障碍尚未解决：数据。国家科学基金会的资金用于更新最常用的外国军事干预数据、皮尔逊和鲍曼(1993)的国际军事干预(IMI)数据集。IMI是对低规模力量的广泛衡量，它记录了当国家军队或部队进入另一国领土以追求政治、经济或战略目标时所有可核实的案例。ICPSR保存的IMI数据仅涵盖1946至1988年。该项目的PI之一已将数据延长至1996年。他们有资金将其进一步延长至2005年。它们将在2005年6月1日至2006年5月31日结束的一年内完成更新。数据将存放在ICPSR。因此，它的好处将比目前的干预后果项目更持久。这些数据将对比较政治和国际关系领域产生广泛的影响，为当今使用的最普遍的军事力量类型提供可靠、可访问的数据集。鉴于记录的活动种类繁多，全球各地的学者可以使用这些数据来测试一系列不同的理论和关系。该项目的学术价值在于，它将有助于人们对一种现象的理解，这种现象将在未来几十年里普遍存在，并可能产生深远的后果，即外国军事干预。