U.S. Traffic Safety - A National Crisis: Mitigating Fatality Risk with Objective Decision-Making

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

In contrast to most other disciplines, national and local traffic safety lacks standards, codes or widely accepted procedures that can confidently predict performance. Currently, decision-makers must rely on subjective evaluation that tends to be heavily weighted toward opinion and anecdotal evidence. While no one can claim that this practice is the sole source of a multifaceted traffic safety problem, statistics suggest that current practice needs to be studied and improved. Over 40,000 people have died on U.S. roadways each year for the past forty years. This research aims to provide an objective, analytic foundation for handling uncertainty and risk in the context of traffic safety by introducing a proactive, collaborative decision-making process. Our goals, for both local and national jurisdictions, are (1) to develop an analytical model for mining crash and traffic data, (2) to develop a Highway Safety Manual (HSM), a comprehensive catalog of procedures and information for conducting performance-based crash studies, and (3) to bring analytic objectivity into the Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) decision-making process. Two key activities are to develop crash analysis models and procedures that can (a) confidently identify hazardous roadways and (b) accurately predict performance at treated sites. Statistical learning techniques will be used to classify roadways into useful categories and to calibrate, assess and select models that can be used for planning roadways with maximum safety. A safety standard and a failure probability model -- the failure to satisfy the standard -- will be an integral part of the performance-based crash analyses process and should be an effective risk communication device, especially when the process requires public participation. Ultimately, our goal is a working HSIP decision-making process applicable to all traffic areas in the United States, accepted on its merits -- one that meets the demand for a proactive and collaborative decision-making process and satisfies a great national need. A successful transition to our HSIP process hinges on stakeholder adoption. Therefore, the third key activity consists of strengthening and expanding partnerships among stakeholders with different technical backgrounds, experience, and philosophies by conducting three workshops: (1) stakeholder perceptions on road safety, (2) risk analysis perspectives, and (3) forming a strategic relationship.