Doctoral Dissertation Research. The Trajectory of Deomcracy: The Social Roots of Political Change in Turkey 1946-2004

约翰·霍普金斯大学将土耳其二战后议会民主的经验与其他国家的经验进行比较，揭示了土耳其政权的一个反常现象，这一点很少被注意到。除土耳其外，没有其他国家经历过如此大规模的军事政变，同时还享有长期的议会民主。这项研究试图通过追溯土耳其政治变革的社会根源来解释这种反常现象。它有两个具体目标：(1)在一个新的概念框架内描绘1946年至2004年土耳其政治政权的轨迹，旨在克服现有文献中关于未巩固民主的一些限制；(2)考察三个相互关联的过程--(A)来自底层的社会抗议，(B)土耳其权力集团内部的竞争，以及(C)核心国家之间的冲突--在解释所确定的轨迹方面所起的作用。关于因果关系的具体假设将通过对二战后时期的深入历史分析来评估。这项研究将创建几个新的数据汇编，以供历史分析参考，包括一个关于1946-2004年土耳其社会动荡的主要新数据库，该数据库根据土耳其两家主要全国性日报上发表的抗议事件报道汇编而成。更广泛的影响。预计这项研究将做出几项重大的学术贡献。首先，关于社会抗议的全面的新数据库将填补土耳其社会运动文献中的一个重要的经验空白。第二，为分析土耳其正在进行的民主化进程而开发的多维概念网格将有助于绘制除土耳其之外的各种民主制度的轨迹，从而有助于研究这里所审查的具体案例以外的民主化进程。最后，这项研究的结果具有更广泛的影响，因为土耳其经常被认为是一个有经验教训的典范，可以用来促进整个中东的民主化进程。更深入地了解导致土耳其政治政权走向的社会动态，将有助于揭示旨在促进区域民主化的现行政策的潜力/局限性。

SES-0526138Beverly J. SilverBaris Cetin ErenJohns Hopkins UniversityComparing Turkey's post-WWII experience of parliamentary democracy to other countries' experiences reveals an anomaly of the Turkish regime, which is seldom noticed. Apart from Turkey, no other country has experienced such a large number of military coups and at the same time enjoyed long periods of parliamentary democracy. The research seeks to account for this anomaly by tracing the social roots of political change in Turkey. It has two specific aims: (1) to map the trajectory of the Turkish political regime between 1946 and 2004 within a new conceptual schema that is designed to overcome some of the limitations of the existing literature on unconsolidated democracies; and (2) to examine the role of three inter-linked processes-(a) social protest from below, (b) competition within the power bloc in Turkey, and (c) conflict among core states-in explaining the trajectory identified. Specific hypotheses on the causal relationships will be assessed through an in-depth historical analysis of the post-WWII period. The research will create several new data compilations on which the historical analysis will draw, including a major new database on social unrest in Turkey from 1946-2004, compiled from reports of protest events published in two major Turkish national daily newspapers. Broader Impacts. The research is expected to make several significant scholarly contributions. First, the comprehensive new database on social protest will fill an important empirical lacuna in the literature on social movements in Turkey. Second, the multi-dimensional conceptual grid developed for analyzing ongoing democratization processes in Turkey will be useful for mapping the trajectory of various democratic regimes apart from Turkey, and will thus contribute to the study of democratization processes beyond the specific case examined here. Finally, the results of the research have broader implications, given that Turkey is frequently pointed to as a model with lessons that can be applied to promoting democratization processes in the Middle East as a whole. Gaining a deeper understanding of the social dynamics that are responsible for the trajectory of the Turkish political regime will help shed light on the potential/limits of current policies designed to promote regional democratization.