Analysis and Testing of Proxy-Based Climate Reconstructions

基于代理的气候重建的分析和测试

• 批准号: 0542356
• 负责人: Michael Mann
• 金额: $ 45.94万
• 依托单位: Pennsylvania State Univ University Park
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-03-01 至 2010-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0542356&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Analysis; Testing; Proxy; Based; Climate

This project will develop proxy-based reconstructions of large-scale surface temperature patterns, atmospheric circulation, and continental drought over the past two millennia. The rationale behind the research is that quantitative comparison of reconstructions and simulations of climate over the past two millennia can provide an assessment of the extent to which natural and anthropogenic forcing can explain observed patterns of climatic change. The research builds upon promising results by the researcher in testing proxy network design strategies for climate field reconstruction using climate model simulation results.The research addresses important issues with broad impact to the wider science community regarding the factors underlying past climate variability and the implications for understanding future change. These include an understanding the spatial and temporal details of past changes in the Earth's climate including the role of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere processes (e.g. El Nino Southern Oscillation), the Northern Annual Mode (NAM), and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in explaining observed patterns of large-scale climate (e.g., surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) variability and change over the past two millennia.

该项目将对过去两千年来的大规模地表温度模式、大气环流和大陆干旱进行基于代理的重建。 这项研究背后的基本原理是，对过去两千年的气候重建和模拟进行定量比较，可以评估自然和人为强迫在多大程度上可以解释观测到的气候变化模式。 该研究建立在研究人员使用气候模型模拟结果测试气候场重建代理网络设计策略的有希望的结果的基础上。该研究解决了对更广泛的科学界产生广泛影响的重要问题，涉及过去气候变化的潜在因素以及对理解未来变化的影响。 这些包括了解地球气候过去变化的空间和时间细节，包括热带太平洋海洋大气过程（例如厄尔尼诺南方涛动）、北方年模（NAM）和南方环模（SAM）在解释过去两千年中观测到的大规模气候（例如地表温度和大气环流）变率和变化模式中的作用。