Correctly Interpreting Near-Miss Events for Hurricanes

正确解读飓风的未遂事件

• 批准号: 0555805
• 负责人: Robin Dillon-Merrill
• 金额: $ 29.96万
• 依托单位: Georgetown University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-01 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0555805&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Correctly; Interpreting; Near; Miss; Events

AbstractCMS-0555805 (Dillon-Merrill)Correctly Interpreting Near-Miss Events in HurricanesPeople throughout the United States experience near-misses from natural disasters only to be confronted by the same threats the next year. When the next major catastrophe does occur, questions arise as to why the decision makers did not heed the prior near-misses as warning signs and do more to prepare for future events. This research examines how near-miss events, and the interpretations of why certain past outcomes occurred influence future decisions. This research theorizes that rather than heeding precursor events as warnings, decision makers with near-miss information often make decisions that reflect more, not less, risky behavior. Moreover, they often do not seek additional information that might improve future decision making. Education and training in decision and risk analysis should attenuate the near-miss bias. This research tests these hypotheses with an interactive hurricane simulation. This research will document specifically where and why near-miss information influences decision making, as well as how the near-miss bias may be exaggerated or attenuated by characteristics of the decision context. Theoretical models for individual, organizational, and community decision making will be developed and tested that can be used as a basis for developing prescriptive quantitative risk frameworks to alter and improve the decision making process.

摘要cms -0555805 （Dillon-Merrill）正确解读飓风中的“差点”事件美国各地的人们都经历过自然灾害的“差点”事件，但第二年却面临同样的威胁。当下一次重大灾难真的发生时，问题就出现了：为什么决策者没有把之前的“险些”事件当作警告信号，而采取更多措施为未来的事件做准备？本研究探讨了未遂事件，以及为什么某些过去的结果会影响未来的决定的解释。这项研究的理论是，决策者没有把先兆事件当作警告，而是根据侥幸信息做出的决定往往反映出更多而不是更少的风险行为。此外，他们往往不寻求可能改善未来决策的额外信息。在决策和风险分析方面的教育和培训应该能减轻这种侥幸的偏见。这项研究通过互动飓风模拟来验证这些假设。本研究将具体记录在哪里以及为什么差一点的信息会影响决策，以及差一点的偏差如何被决策背景的特征夸大或减弱。将开发和测试个人、组织和社区决策的理论模型，这些模型可以用作开发说明性定量风险框架的基础，以改变和改进决策过程。