Correctly Interpreting Near-Miss Events for Hurricanes

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AbstractCMS-0555805 (Dillon-Merrill)Correctly Interpreting Near-Miss Events in HurricanesPeople throughout the United States experience near-misses from natural disasters only to be confronted by the same threats the next year. When the next major catastrophe does occur, questions arise as to why the decision makers did not heed the prior near-misses as warning signs and do more to prepare for future events. This research examines how near-miss events, and the interpretations of why certain past outcomes occurred influence future decisions. This research theorizes that rather than heeding precursor events as warnings, decision makers with near-miss information often make decisions that reflect more, not less, risky behavior. Moreover, they often do not seek additional information that might improve future decision making. Education and training in decision and risk analysis should attenuate the near-miss bias. This research tests these hypotheses with an interactive hurricane simulation. This research will document specifically where and why near-miss information influences decision making, as well as how the near-miss bias may be exaggerated or attenuated by characteristics of the decision context. Theoretical models for individual, organizational, and community decision making will be developed and tested that can be used as a basis for developing prescriptive quantitative risk frameworks to alter and improve the decision making process.