Protecting Interdependent Critical Infrastructures from Multi-Mode Attacks & Failures: Vulnerability, Consequences, & Mitigation for Linked Urban Water & Fire Response

摘要：CMS-0600448 （Brumbelow）保护相互依赖的关键基础设施免受多模式攻击和故障的影响：脆弱性、后果和缓解。该项目解决了多模式攻击或故障（MMAF）的风险、后果和保护策略，该多模式攻击或故障（MMAF）同时使水系统失效并引发城市火灾。该项目将分三个阶段进行。首先，将开发城市地区对潜在的MMAF水火事件的脆弱性分析技术。将定义几个潜在的MMAF事件，并采用风险分析方法来确定每个MMAF事件的概率。其次，将开发用于MMAF水火事件后果分析的双系统模拟工具，并使用？虚拟城市。?该模拟工具将连接并适应现有的配水系统和城市火灾蔓延模型，以及优化算法，以计算第1阶段定义的MMAF事件下的火灾损害评分并对其进行排名。第三，将根据第2阶段确定的损害评分制定缓解战略。这些战略将包括基础设施管理、物理基础设施变更、威慑、响应能力建设和公共教育等。为项目个案研究而开发的虚拟城市将以电子形式（即地理信息系统和水力模型文件）免费提供给研究和教育界。这个虚拟实验室将允许用可发布的数据集对各种主题进行比较研究。

Abstract:CMS-0600448 (Brumbelow) Protecting Interdependent Critical Infrastructures from Multi-Mode Attacks & Failures: Vulnerability, Consequences, & Mitigation for Linked Urban Water & Fire Response Systems This project addresses the risk, consequences, and protective strategies appropriate to a multi-mode attack or failure (MMAF) which simultaneously disables the water system and ignites an urban fire. The project will proceed in three phases. First, techniques for vulnerability analysis of urban areas to potential MMAF water-fire events will be developed. Several potential MMAF events will be defined, and risk analysis methodologies will be adapted to determine probabilities of each MMAF event. Second, a dual-system simulation tool for consequence analysis of MMAF water-fire events will be developed and tested using a ?virtual city.? This simulation tool will link and adapt existing models of water distribution systems and urban fire spread along with optimization algorithms to calculate and rank fire damage scores under the MMAF events defined in Phase 1. Third, mitigation strategies will be developed in response to the damage scores determined in Phase 2. These strategies will include infrastructure management, physical infrastructure changes, deterrence, response capacity building, and public education, among others. The virtual city developed for project case studies will be made freely available to the research and education communities in electronic forms (i.e., GIS and hydraulic model files). This virtual laboratory will allow for comparative studies of various topics with a publishable dataset.