Agent-Based Modeling for Planning Emergency Response to Contamination Emergencies in Water Utilities

该研究项目连接了水利工程和社会科学的学科，为水务管理人员在污染事件中面临的问题提供答案，“我需要知道什么，我可以使用什么工具来有效地减少疾病和死亡？”“大约90%的美国人口从17万个公共供水设施中的一个获得水。尽管这一基础设施无处不在，对公共卫生也很重要，但供水系统应急管理的许多方面仍处于未开发阶段。配水系统中的意外污染物会侵蚀公众的信任，导致疾病和死亡，而恶意污染可能会导致更具破坏性的结果。 随着污染事件的发生，水务管理人员需要在一个非常困难的环境中做出决策：他们收到的信息是不完整的，并且存在很大的误差;供水系统是动态的，非常复杂;消费者的反应是不确定的，影响供水系统的运行，使系统的动态变得更加复杂和不确定。 在整个事件中，消费者可能会根据官方通知（如开水通知）或非正式（同行发起的）警告减少用水量，消费者响应这些警报的行动将改变网络中的水力条件。因此，水务管理人员的任何进一步决定都应考虑到污染物羽流的波动。 该项目解决了供水威胁管理问题的几个未知方面。这项研究将收集所需的数据，以经验模型消费者的决策过程和遵守率的保护行动建议。消费者行为的经验模型和水分配网络的水力模拟将通过基于代理的建模（ABM）框架耦合。模拟框架将与优化算法相结合，以评估大量的应对方案，并制定有效的应急计划，以应对人口与基础设施相互作用的不确定性和动态性。项目结果将用于制定一个协议，以应对污染事件的市政当局和供水公司。虽然故意污染是一个现实的威胁，美国供水公司的基础设施，很少有研究文献存在的复杂的相互作用的紧急警告，公众的反应，和管理效率的供水公司。 美国环境保护局已经发布了一些文件，为应对配水事件提供了一些指导，但只能建议非常通用的行动，因为公用事业的最佳响应取决于系统的水力特性，污染物释放的特性以及公众，媒体和决策者的相互作用。 这一框架将使具体的供水公司能够根据其具体特点确定应对一系列事件的备选方案，从而使公职人员和供水公司经营者做好准备，更好地保护公众健康。 当一个公用事业使用的框架，一套文件和流程图将产生，以后可以用来指导管理行动的实时污染物事件的展开和事件的特点是了解信息收集。

This research project bridges the disciplines of hydraulic engineering and social science to provide answers to the questions a water utility manager faces in a contamination event, "What do I need to know and what tools can I use to effectively minimize sickness and deaths from this event?" Approximately 90 percent of the U.S. population receives water from one of 170,000 public water utilities. Despite the ubiquity of this infrastructure and its importance for public health, many aspects of emergency management for water systems remain at an undeveloped stage. Accidental contaminants in the water distribution system erode public trust and result in sickness and death, and malicious contamination may cause even more destructive results. As a contamination event unfolds, water utility managers need to make decisions in an extraordinarily difficult environment: information that they receive is incomplete and subject to great error; the water distribution system is dynamic and extremely complex; and consumer reactions are uncertain and affect the operation of the water system, making the dynamics of the system even more complex and uncertain. Throughout an event, consumers may reduce their water consumption based on official notices, such as boil water notices, or informal (peer-initiated) warnings, and the actions of consumers in response to these alerts will change hydraulic conditions in the network. Thus, any further decisions by water utility managers should take into account the fluctuations of the contaminant plume. The project addresses several unknown facets of the water distribution threat management problem. This research will collect data needed to empirically model consumers' decision-making process and compliance rates to protective action recommendations. Empirical models of consumer behavior and hydraulic simulation of water distribution networks will be coupled through an agent-based modeling (ABM) framework. The simulation framework will be coupled with optimization algorithms to evaluate large sets of response options and develop effective emergency response plans that account for uncertainty and the dynamic nature of population-infrastructure interactions. Project results will be used to develop a protocol for responding to contamination events for municipalities and water utilities.While intentional contamination is a realistic threat to U.S. water utility infrastructure, little research literature exists on the complex interactions of emergency warnings, public response, and management effectiveness for water utilities. The Environmental Protection Agency has published documents to provide some guidance for responding to a water distribution event, but can recommend only very generic actions, as the best response for a utility depends on the hydraulic characteristics of the system, the characteristics of the contaminant release, and the interactions of the public, media, and decision makers. This framework will allow a specific water utility to identify response options for a range of events based on its particular characteristics, thus preparing and equipping public officials and water utility operators to better protect public health. When a utility uses the framework, a set of documents and flowcharts will be produced that can later be used to guide management actions in real-time as a contaminant event unfolds and the characteristics of the event are understood as information is gathered.