Collaborative Research: Evaluation of a Coupled Meteorology-Chemistry Model Against Long-Term Measurements of Elemental Carbon and Sulfate for Regional Climate Applications

这项研究项目的主要目标是：(1)确定在纽约州梅维尔和纽约州怀特法斯山下风向约530公里处收集的两个不同年份的元素碳浓度{EC}；以及(2)使用这些数据来评估由Pi Shankar建立的颗粒物、臭氧及其前体的化学和化学耦合模式及其对大气动力学的辐射反馈。该项目的动机是这样一个事实，即颗粒黑碳(BC)，在测量中被视为等同于EC，是太阳辐射的强大吸收者，被认为占全球变暖估计的约15%-30%，仅次于温室气体；然而，这种强迫对气候的影响程度高度不确定。气溶胶BC的停留时间约为一周，因此在去除之前它可以移动数千公里；因此，它的浓度取决于离排放源的距离。对不列颠哥伦比亚省附近和远程来源对美国辐射影响的可靠估计，关键取决于获得具有地区代表性的测量结果。PI将在白面山夏季每6小时收集一次过滤器，在1998年和2002年冬季每48小时收集一次过滤器，并在同一年每24小时在梅维尔收集一次过滤器中的{EC}。此外，已经确定了{SO4}，并在持续时间内对两个地点的臭氧进行了实时测量。先前的研究表明，这两个地点的EC和SO4测量具有地区性代表性，并与已知的上风气团输入高度相关。这些测量将被用于评估METCHEM(气象-化学)，该模式将第五代宾夕法尼亚州立大学/国家大气科学中心(NCAR)中尺度模式(MM5)的中尺度气象与多尺度空气质量模拟平台(MAQSIP)模拟的颗粒物和气相物种化学和输送的算法动态耦合。其最终目的是模拟它们对大气动力学的辐射反馈。在观测点上嵌套的大陆到区域到地方尺度的模拟将允许PI检查远程传输和网格细化对模式预测的影响。将使用输入数据中的三个不同的排放清单来检查模型对排放增长和控制以及对野火和风尘等来源表示的连续改进的敏感性。该项目将在目前由NSF资助的由两个PI执行的测量和建模项目的基础上，并对其进行补充。它将有助于评估一个模型，该模型用于预测化石燃料消费的EC和其他排放的顺风向负担和气候影响。经评估的模型及其生成的数据集将为科学界提供有价值的工具，以阐明这些排放对气候的影响。这个项目的结果将成为纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校一名学生的博士论文的基础，北卡罗来纳大学-卡罗莱纳环境项目的入门级建模人员的参与也将促进新研究人员的培训。最后，个人投资促进机构和合作机构的积极作用将扩大性别和地域代表性不足的群体在这一领域的参与。

The primary objectives of this research project are to: (1) determine the elemental carbon concentrations, {EC}, in archived filters collected at Mayville, NY, and ~530 km downwind at Whiteface Mt, NY, for a summer and a winter month in two different years; and (2) to use these data to evaluate a coupled meteorology-chemistry model developed by PI Shankar for the chemistry and transport of particulates, ozone and their precursors, and their radiative feedbacks to the atmospheric dynamics. The project is motivated by the fact that particulate black carbon (BC), which is treated equivalent to EC in the measurements, is a strong absorber of solar radiation, and thought to account for ~15-30% of global warming estimates, next only to greenhouse gases; however, the magnitude of this forcing on climate is highly uncertain. Aerosol BC has a residence time of about a week so it can travel thousands of kilometers before removal; thus its concentrations are dependent on the distance from emission sources. Reliable estimation of the radiative impacts in the U.S. from nearby and remote sources of BC depends critically on obtaining regionally representative measurements. The PIs will determine the {EC} in filters collected every 6 h during summer and every 48 h during the winter of 1998 and 2002 at Whiteface Mt, and every 24 h at Mayville for the same years. In addition, {SO4} have already been determined, and real-time measurements of ozone are available for both the sites for the duration. Prior studies have shown EC and SO4 measurements from these two sites to be regionally representative and highly correlated with known import of upwind airmasses. The measurements will be used to evaluate METCHEM (METeteorology-CHEMistry), a model that dynamically couples the mesoscale meteorology of the Fifth Generation Penn State/National center for Atmospheric Sciences (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) with algorithms for particulates and gas-phase species chemistry and transport simulated by the Multiscale Air Quality Simulation Platform (MAQSIP). The ultimate purpose is to simulate their radiative feedbacks to the atmospheric dynamics. Nested continental- to-regional- to-local-scale simulations over the observational sites will allow the PIs to examine the effects of long-range transport and grid refinement on the model predictions. The model sensitivity to emissions growth and control, and to successive improvements in the representation of sources such as wild fires and wind-blown dust will be examined using three different emission inventories in the input data. The project will build upon, and augment current NSF-funded measurement and modeling projects being performed by both PIs. It will help evaluate a model used to predict the downwind burden and climate impacts of EC and other emissions from fossil fuel consumption. The evaluated model and the datasets it generates will provide tools of value to the scientific community in illuminating the impacts of these emissions on climate. The results from this project will be the basis for the Ph.D. dissertation of a student at SUNY, Albany, and participation by entry-level modelers at the University of North Carolina-Carolina Environmental Program will also foster training of new researchers. Finally, the active roles of the PIs and Co-Is will broaden participation by groups underrepresented in gender and geography in this field.