Spatial and Temporal Variability of Sea-Ice Draft Near the North Pole from ULS Data, 1975 - 2005

Moritz 0612944提供了用于分析1975-2005年间海底和系泊仰视声纳(ULS)数据的Funds，重点分析了北极区(NPR，北纬87度以北)，那里的海底数据最密集，系泊数据可解析多个年度周期。美国海军最近解密的数据使可用的潜艇数据翻了一番，NPR的停泊UL将提供4到5个年度系列。潜艇的覆盖范围沿剖面密集，但在时间上是零星的。停泊的UL覆盖范围在时间上密集，但在空间上稀疏。将分析几个辅助数据集：来自国际北极浮标方案的海冰运动学、热力学和大气环流数据、估计的海冰期月场，以及来自海/冰耦合模式的强迫和输出变量。平均冰川吃水将进行统计描述。将ULS数据放在不同大小的空间/时间窗口中，估计样本统计数据和置信度界限，并执行多元回归分析，将显示这种描述在不同分辨率下的准确性。将利用相关技术和对平均厚度预算方程的诊断分析，研究ULS数据和辅助数据之间的关系，以查明模型和数据之间的可变性和差异的原因。海冰厚度是气候变异性的重要诊断指标。它是估计海冰质量平衡所必需的，因此对世界海洋的淡水收支和温盐环流(全球传送带)有影响。该项目的结果将有助于改进对过去以及在很少或没有海底数据的时候，如未来十年可能出现的情况，改进对北极星研究中冰吃水可变性的估计。这项研究将增加对冰流时空变异性的认识和理解，包括其原因，并对样本统计数据和NPR的趋势提供更可靠的估计。

Moritz 0612944Funds are provided to analyze submarine and moored upward-looking sonar (ULS) data from 1975-2005, focusing on the North Polar Region (NPR, north of 87o N) where the submarine data are densest and moored data resolve multiple annual cycles. Recent declassifications by the U.S. Navy have doubled the available submarine data, and 4 or 5 annual series will be available from moored ULS in NPR. Coverage by the submarines is dense along the profile, but sporadic in time. Coverage by the moored ULS is dense in time, but sparse in space. Several ancillary datasets will be analyzed: sea-ice kinematics, thermodynamic and atmospheric circulation data from the International Arctic Buoy Program, estimated monthly fields of sea-ice age, and forcing and output variables from a coupled ocean/ice model. The mean ice draft will be described statistically. Binning the ULS data in space/time windows of varying size, estimating sample statistics and confidence limits, and performing multiple regression analysis will show how accurate this description is at different resolutions. Relationships between the ULS data and the ancillary data will be studied, using correlation techniques and diagnostic analysis of the budget equation for mean thickness, in order to identify causes of variability and discrepancies between the model and data. Sea ice thickness is an important diagnostic for climate variability. It is required for estimation of the sea ice mass balance and, consequently, has implications for the world ocean's fresh water budget and thermohaline circulation (the global conveyer belt). Results of this project will permit improved estimation of ice draft variability in the NPR during the past and, potentially, at times when there are few or no submarine data, as is likely to be the case during the next decade. The study will increase knowledge and understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of ice draft, including its causes, and provide more robust estimates of sample statistics and trends in NPR.