Spatial and Temporal Variability of Sea-Ice Draft Near the North Pole from ULS Data, 1975 - 2005

莫里茨0612944提供资金用于分析1975-2005年的海底和系泊上视声纳（ULS）数据，重点是北极地区（NPR，北纬87 °以北），在那里海底数据是可分辨的，系泊数据可以分辨多个年度周期。 美国海军最近的解密使可用的潜艇数据翻了一番，NPR中的停泊ULS将提供4或5个年度系列。 潜艇的覆盖沿着剖面是密集的，但在时间上是分散的。 系泊ULS的覆盖范围在时间上密集，但在空间上稀疏。几个辅助数据集将进行分析：海冰运动学，热力学和大气环流数据，从国际北极浮标计划，估计每月领域的海冰年龄，强迫和输出变量从一个耦合的海洋/冰模式。 将对平均冰吃水进行统计描述。 在不同大小的空间/时间窗口中对ULS数据进行分箱，估计样本统计量和置信限，并执行多元回归分析，将显示此描述在不同分辨率下的准确性。 ULS数据和辅助数据之间的关系将进行研究，使用相关技术和平均厚度的预算方程的诊断分析，以确定模型和数据之间的变异性和差异的原因。 海冰厚度是气候变率的一个重要诊断指标。 这是估计海冰质量平衡所必需的，因此对世界海洋的淡水收支和温盐环流（全球输送带）有影响。 该项目的结果将允许在过去的NPR中改进冰吃水变化的估计，并且可能在很少或没有潜艇数据的时候，就像在未来十年中可能出现的情况一样。 这项研究将增加对冰吃水的空间和时间变化的认识和理解，包括其原因，并提供更可靠的样本统计和NPR趋势估计。

Moritz 0612944Funds are provided to analyze submarine and moored upward-looking sonar (ULS) data from 1975-2005, focusing on the North Polar Region (NPR, north of 87o N) where the submarine data are densest and moored data resolve multiple annual cycles. Recent declassifications by the U.S. Navy have doubled the available submarine data, and 4 or 5 annual series will be available from moored ULS in NPR. Coverage by the submarines is dense along the profile, but sporadic in time. Coverage by the moored ULS is dense in time, but sparse in space. Several ancillary datasets will be analyzed: sea-ice kinematics, thermodynamic and atmospheric circulation data from the International Arctic Buoy Program, estimated monthly fields of sea-ice age, and forcing and output variables from a coupled ocean/ice model. The mean ice draft will be described statistically. Binning the ULS data in space/time windows of varying size, estimating sample statistics and confidence limits, and performing multiple regression analysis will show how accurate this description is at different resolutions. Relationships between the ULS data and the ancillary data will be studied, using correlation techniques and diagnostic analysis of the budget equation for mean thickness, in order to identify causes of variability and discrepancies between the model and data. Sea ice thickness is an important diagnostic for climate variability. It is required for estimation of the sea ice mass balance and, consequently, has implications for the world ocean's fresh water budget and thermohaline circulation (the global conveyer belt). Results of this project will permit improved estimation of ice draft variability in the NPR during the past and, potentially, at times when there are few or no submarine data, as is likely to be the case during the next decade. The study will increase knowledge and understanding of the spatial and temporal variability of ice draft, including its causes, and provide more robust estimates of sample statistics and trends in NPR.