Spatial and Temporal Variability Influences on Ecology and Conservation

气候变化的后果之一是极端天气事件的频率增加。此外，人类继续通过道路、能源走廊、农业、城市化和工业发展来破坏和改变景观。当这些时空变异的变化综合起来，对生态学产生了复杂的影响，包括保护的几个后果，例如，空间结构的捕食者-猎物相互作用，通过下注对冲来抑制风险，饮食中的个体差异（达尔文《物种起源》最后一段后的“纠结滩”），收获和捕食的季节性变化与密度依赖相互作用，形成最佳收成（“九头蛇效应”）。我建议进行3项实地研究，以开发时间波动和空间生态之间界面的应用：(1)觅食的个体和空间变化，抑制了黑熊（美洲熊）和灰熊（美洲熊）的适应性的年内变化，(2)麋鹿（鹿角）的个性决定了如何管理收获，以及(3)捕食和猎人收获影响了大角羊（加拿大羊）的密度依赖性反应。我们提出的灰熊和黑熊研究应用基于无线电遥测的栖息地选择，最近基于从摩擦树收集的毛发样本的DNA。我们建议使用栖息地选择方法来改进空间背景下熊种群的标记-再捕获估计。在阿尔伯塔省西南部，熊的种群结构表明了一种源-库平衡，与农业的冲突驱动了源-库的平衡，但由于食物可得性的时空变化而变得复杂。我们对麋鹿的长期研究是基于有史以来对该物种进行的最大的无线电遥测研究之一，在过去的8年里，在艾伯塔省西南部的季节性范围内积累了超过100万次GPS重新定位。我们将麋鹿的运动模型与栖息地选择相结合，获得了综合阶梯选择分析（iSSA），使我们能够分析麋鹿在栖息地背景下的运动模式。艾伯塔省环境和公园部计划在我们的研究区域实施麋鹿收获法规的实验性改变，我们将记录麋鹿的人口和行为反应。最后，我们正在启动一项新的实验研究美洲狮（美洲狮）捕食和猎人收获大角羊。我们已经有了大量关于美洲狮的无线电遥测数据，阿尔伯塔环境和公园将在随机选择的野生动物管理单位实施延长美洲狮季节的措施，以减少对被猎杀的大角羚的捕食。遥测、标记再捕获和我们的新iSSAs工具使我们能够以新颖的方式将空间生态学与种群生物学结合起来，并直接应用于保护生物学和野生动物管理。

One of the consequences of climate change has been increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In addition, humans continue to fragment and alter landscapes with roads, energy corridors, agriculture, urbanization, and industrial development. When taken together these changes in temporal and spatial variability have complex ramifications for ecology including several consequences for conservation, e.g., spatially structured predator-prey interactions, dampening risk by bet hedging, among-individual variation in diet (the “Tangled Bank” after last paragraph in Darwin's On the Origin of Species), and seasonal variation in harvest and predation interacting with density dependence to shape optimum harvests (the “Hydra effect”). I propose 3 field studies that develop these applications of the interface between temporal fluctuations and spatial ecology on (1) individual and spatial variation in foraging that dampens among-year variation in fitness for black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), (2) personalities among elk (Cervus elaphus) to shape how harvests should be managed, and (3) predation and hunter harvest influence density-dependent response by bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Our proposed grizzly bear and black bear studies apply habitat selection based on radiotelemetry and more recently based on DNA from hair samples collected at rub trees. We are proposing to use habitat selection methods to refine mark-recapture estimation of bear populations in spatial context. The structure of bear populations in SW Alberta suggests a source-sink balance with sinks driven by conflicts with agriculture, but complicated by temporal and spatial variation in availability of foods. Our long-term elk studies are grounded in one of the largest radiotelemetry studies ever conducted on this species with over 1 million GPS relocations accumulated during the past 8 years on seasonal ranges in SW Alberta. We have integrated models of movement with habitat selection obtaining integrated step-selection analysis (iSSA) that allows us to analyze patterns of movement by elk in context of habitats. Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks plans to implement an experimental change in elk harvest regulations in our study area where we will document demographic and behavioural responses by elk. Finally, we are initiating a new experimental study of cougar (Puma concolor) predation and hunter harvest of bighorn sheep. We have extensive radiotelemetry data on cougars already and Alberta Environment and Parks will implement extended cougar seasons on randomly selected Wildlife Management Units designed to reduce predation on hunted populations of bighorns. Tools of telemetry, mark-recapture, and our new iSSAs allow us to marry spatial ecology with population biology in novel ways with direct applications for conservation biology and wildlife management.