Spatial and Temporal Variability Influences on Ecology and Conservation

气候变化的后果之一是极端天气事件越来越频繁。 此外，人类继续通过道路、能源走廊、农业、城市化和工业发展破坏和改变景观。 当把这些时间和空间变异性的变化放在一起时，对生态学有复杂的影响，包括对保护的几个后果，例如，空间结构的捕食者-猎物相互作用，通过赌注对冲来降低风险，饮食中的个体差异（达尔文的《物种起源》最后一段之后的“纠结的银行”），以及收获和捕食的季节性变化与密度依赖相互作用，以形成最佳收获（“九头蛇效应”）。 我提出了3个领域的研究，发展这些应用程序之间的接口时间波动和空间生态学（1）个人和空间变化，在觅食，抑制2000年的变化，在健身黑色（Ursus americanus）和灰熊（U。arctos），（2）麋鹿（马鹿）之间的个性，以塑造如何收获应管理，和（3）捕食和猎人收获的影响密度依赖的反应大角羊（Ovis canadensis）。 我们提出的灰熊和黑熊的研究应用栖息地选择的基础上无线电遥测和最近的基础上从橡胶树收集的头发样本的DNA。 我们建议使用栖息地选择的方法来完善标记-再捕获估计熊种群的空间背景。 在西南阿尔伯塔熊种群的结构表明，与农业的冲突驱动的汇源-汇平衡，但复杂的时间和空间变化的食物供应。 我们的长期麋鹿研究是基于有史以来对这个物种进行的最大的无线电遥测研究之一，在过去8年中，在西南阿尔伯塔的季节性范围内积累了超过100万个GPS重新定位。 我们已经集成的运动模型与栖息地选择获得综合步骤选择分析（ISSA），使我们能够分析麋鹿在栖息地的背景下的运动模式。 阿尔伯塔省环境和公园部计划在我们的研究区域实施麋鹿收获法规的实验性变化，我们将记录麋鹿的人口和行为反应。 最后，我们正在启动一个新的实验研究美洲狮（美洲狮concolor）捕食和狩猎收获的大角羊。 我们已经有了关于美洲狮的广泛的无线电遥测数据，阿尔伯塔环境和公园将在随机选择的野生动物管理单位实施延长美洲狮季节的措施，以减少对被猎杀的大角牛种群的捕食。 遥测工具，标记-再捕获，和我们新的iSSA使我们能够以新颖的方式将空间生态学与种群生物学结合起来，直接应用于保护生物学和野生动物管理。

One of the consequences of climate change has been increasing frequency of extreme weather events. In addition, humans continue to fragment and alter landscapes with roads, energy corridors, agriculture, urbanization, and industrial development. When taken together these changes in temporal and spatial variability have complex ramifications for ecology including several consequences for conservation, e.g., spatially structured predator-prey interactions, dampening risk by bet hedging, among-individual variation in diet (the “Tangled Bank” after last paragraph in Darwin's On the Origin of Species), and seasonal variation in harvest and predation interacting with density dependence to shape optimum harvests (the “Hydra effect”). I propose 3 field studies that develop these applications of the interface between temporal fluctuations and spatial ecology on (1) individual and spatial variation in foraging that dampens among-year variation in fitness for black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (U. arctos), (2) personalities among elk (Cervus elaphus) to shape how harvests should be managed, and (3) predation and hunter harvest influence density-dependent response by bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis). Our proposed grizzly bear and black bear studies apply habitat selection based on radiotelemetry and more recently based on DNA from hair samples collected at rub trees. We are proposing to use habitat selection methods to refine mark-recapture estimation of bear populations in spatial context. The structure of bear populations in SW Alberta suggests a source-sink balance with sinks driven by conflicts with agriculture, but complicated by temporal and spatial variation in availability of foods. Our long-term elk studies are grounded in one of the largest radiotelemetry studies ever conducted on this species with over 1 million GPS relocations accumulated during the past 8 years on seasonal ranges in SW Alberta. We have integrated models of movement with habitat selection obtaining integrated step-selection analysis (iSSA) that allows us to analyze patterns of movement by elk in context of habitats. Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks plans to implement an experimental change in elk harvest regulations in our study area where we will document demographic and behavioural responses by elk. Finally, we are initiating a new experimental study of cougar (Puma concolor) predation and hunter harvest of bighorn sheep. We have extensive radiotelemetry data on cougars already and Alberta Environment and Parks will implement extended cougar seasons on randomly selected Wildlife Management Units designed to reduce predation on hunted populations of bighorns. Tools of telemetry, mark-recapture, and our new iSSAs allow us to marry spatial ecology with population biology in novel ways with direct applications for conservation biology and wildlife management.