SoD-HCER: Incorporating Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Software Designs

计算机和信息科学与工程部计算机和网络系统司计算机和网络系统设计科学计划建议编号：0613823 P/I：Mary ShawPI系：计算机科学研究所：卡内基-梅隆大学奖：132,021美元标题：“软件设计评估中的不确定性”这个项目涉及开发一个系统框架，即软件信任链，用于编码和管理软件设计中的不确定性。这项研究通过设计和验证评估信息的表示为信任链奠定了基础，该表示还捕获了可信度信息和分析成本，并支持信息的动态更新。此外，该项目将探索两种处理不确定性的具体技术，表征随时间变化的需求和资源的不确定性，并通过改进最终用户表达其需求和期望的方式来减少最终用户需求和期望的不确定性。拟议的研究将为描述和管理软件设计中的不确定性提供科学基础，特别是在设计过程的早期，同时进行更改仍然相对便宜。将不确定性和信心评估直接与分析联系起来，将改善与客户看到的成本和收益之间的联系，从而使软件开发的商业决策更有见地。这个项目将通过提供一种统一的方法来描述和管理不确定性，认识并保留不确定性和信心来源之间的关系，从而提高我们对设计的基本理解。它将有助于提供有用的分析能力和探索不确定性的不同方面的分析技术，特别是在设计的早期阶段。它将有助于对具体类型的不确定性管理的科学理解，也有助于解决制定预测性评价这一更一般的挑战。此外，这项研究将有助于制定一个全面的模型，严格地将各种分析联系起来，这是一个长期目标。它还将有助于在软件设计和成熟的商业模式之间建立一座跨学科的桥梁。发展一种科学基础，在考虑到不确定性的情况下找到具有成本效益的设计点，有望改进社区普遍使用的产品，例如使其更容易从类似的竞争产品中进行选择。同样，对用户偏好的更多关注，特别是对偏好的动态适应，应该会使计算对日常用户来说不那么神秘。

Directorate for Computer and Information Science and Engineering (CISE)Division Computer and Network Systems (CNS)Science of Design (SoD) ProgramProposal Number: 0613823 P/I: Mary ShawPI's Department: Computer ScienceInstitution: Carnegie-Mellon UniversityAward: $132,021Title: "SoD-HCER: Incorporating Uncertainty in the Evaluation of Software Designs"This project involves the development of a systematic framework, the software confidence chain, for codifying and managing uncertainty in software design. This research lays the groundwork for confidence chains by designing and validating a representation for evaluation information that also captures confidence information and cost of analysis and that supports dynamic update of the information. In addition, the project will explore two specific techniques for handling uncertainty, characterizing uncertainty about requirements and resources that change over time and reducing uncertainty about end users' needs and expectations by improving ways for them to express their needs and expectations. The proposed research will provide a scientific basis for describing and managing uncertainty in software design, especially early in the design process, while it is still relatively inexpensive to make changes. Connecting assessments of uncertainty and confidence directly to analysis will improve the linkage to costs and benefits seen by clients, enabling more informed business decisions about software development. This project will improve our fundamental understanding of design by providing a unified approach to describing and managing uncertainty that recognizes and preserves the relations among sources of uncertainty and confidence. It will contribute analysis techniques that both provide useful analysis power and explore different facets of uncertainty, especially in the early stages of design. It will contribute both to a scientific understanding of specific types of uncertainty management and to the more general challenge of developing predictive evaluations. In addition, the research will contribute to a longer-term objective of developing a comprehensive model that rigorously relates a wide class of analyses. It will also help to establish an interdisciplinary bridge between software design and well-established business models. Development of a scientific basis for finding design points that are cost effective in light of uncertainty holds promise for improving products used by the community at large, for example by making it easier to select from among similar competing products. Similarly, increased attention to user preferences, especially for dynamic adaptation to preferences, should make computing less inscrutable to everyday users.Program Manager: Anita J. La SalleDate: July 5, 2006