The Economic Impact of Terrorism: Lessons from the Real Estate Office Markets of New York and Chicago

建议编号：0617810机构：NBER国家科学基金会计划：经济学首席研究员：阿巴迪，阿尔伯托标题：恐怖主义的经济影响：纽约和芝加哥房地产写字楼市场的教训--恐怖主义或其威胁对经济活动有很大的负面影响。然而，很少有研究对恐怖主义的影响或其对经济活动的威胁进行量化。这项研究项目将使用美国两个主要中央商务区(纽约市和芝加哥)的数据和最新的计量经济学方法来调查人们对恐怖主义风险的看法增加对经济结果的影响。由于集聚经济，市中心的写字楼市场多年来一直蓬勃发展。然而，房地产分析师表示，在2001年9月11日事件发生后，对某些地位的城市来说，集聚经济的价值已经被侵蚀。9月11日，纽约市中心的写字楼市场受到严重影响，44%的曼哈顿市中心的A级写字楼被袭击摧毁。此外，9/11袭击事件增加了人们对美国其他主要市中心恐怖分子风险的看法。像芝加哥这样的城市，金融机构和高层建筑相当集中，既受到9/11事件造成的衰退压力的影响，也受到对新袭击的恐惧的影响。这一方法还将用于评估卡特里娜飓风等自然灾害对经济活动的影响。对邮政编码层面的经济数据(就业)和最小可用地理范围(建筑层面)的写字楼市场数据(租金和空置率)进行分析，将使您能够最准确地确定恐怖主义风险对美国两个主要中央商务区的影响。与之前的大多数文献相比，这项研究不是描述9/11事件前后汇总数据的时间趋势，而是使用处理和比较组来努力评估恐怖主义对中央商务区写字楼房地产市场的影响。为调查恐怖主义威胁对商业房地产的影响而收集的方法和数据将被其他研究人员用于调查恐怖主义和其他威胁对其他市场的影响。因此，这项研究将对经济科学做出重大贡献。本研究结果将为国家安全领域的公共政策干预提供指导。此外，这一方法将扩展到对其他类型的灾难风险的分析，并特别注意自然灾害。最后，数据库的建设和数据分析将需要研究生作为研究助理参与该项目。教育成分和政策含义表明，这项研究具有更广泛的影响。

Proposal No: 0617810 Institution: NBER NSF Program: ECONOMICS Principal Investigator: Abadie, Alberto Title: The Economic Impact of Terrorism: Lessons from the Real Estate Office Markets of New York and ChicagoABSTRACT Terrorism or the threats of it have large negative impacts on economic activities. Yet very few studies have been done to quantify the effects of terrorism or the threat of it on economic activities. This research project will employ data from two major Central Business Districts in the U.S. (New York City and Chicago) and up to date econometric methods to investigate the impact of an increased perception of terrorist risk on economic outcomes. Downtown office markets have flourished throughout the years due to economies of agglomeration. However, real estate analysts have suggested that, after the events of September 11, 2001, the value of economies of agglomeration has eroded for cities of certain stature. The New York downtown office market was severely impacted on 9/11, with 44 percent of Manhattans downtown class A space destroyed by the attacks. In addition, the 9/11 attacks increased the perception of terrorist risk in other major U.S. downtowns. Cities like Chicago, with a significant concentration of financial institutions and high-rise buildings were impacted both by the recession pressures created by the 9/11 events and by the fear of a new attack. This methodology will also be used to evaluate the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricane Katrina, on economic activity. Analysis of economic data (employment) at the zip code level and office market data (rents and vacancy rates) at the smallest available geographic scale (at the building level) will allow the highest level of accuracy in determining the effects terrorist risk on two major U.S. Central Business Districts. Relative to most of the previous literature, rather than describing temporal trends in aggregate data before and after 9/11, this study will use treatment and comparison groups in an effort to assess the impact of terrorism on office real estate markets in Central Business Districts. The methodology and data collected to investigate the effects of the threats of terrorism on commercial real estate will be used by other researchers to investigate the impacts of terrorism and other threats on other markets. Thus, this research will contribute significantly to economic science. The results of this study will provide guidance to public policy interventions in the field of national security. Moreover, the methodology will be extended to the analysis to other types of catastrophic risks, with particular attention to natural disasters. Finally, the construction of the database and the data analysis will entail the participation of graduate students in the project as research assistants. The educational component and the policy implications show that the research has broader impacts.