The Economic Impact of Terrorism: Lessons from the Real Estate Office Markets of New York and Chicago

机构：NBER NSF项目：经济学首席研究员：Abadie， Alberto题目：恐怖主义的经济影响：来自纽约和芝加哥房地产办公室市场的经验教训恐怖主义或恐怖主义的威胁对经济活动有很大的负面影响。然而，很少有研究量化恐怖主义的影响或其对经济活动的威胁。该研究项目将采用来自美国两个主要中央商务区（纽约市和芝加哥）的数据，并采用最新的计量经济学方法来调查恐怖主义风险对经济结果的影响。由于集聚经济，市中心写字楼市场多年来一直蓬勃发展。然而，房地产分析师认为，在2001年9月11日的事件之后，对于某些地位的城市来说，集聚经济的价值已经受到侵蚀。纽约市中心写字楼市场在9/11事件中受到严重冲击，曼哈顿市中心44%的甲级写字楼在袭击中被毁。此外，9/11袭击增加了美国其他主要市中心的恐怖主义风险。像芝加哥这样拥有大量金融机构和高层建筑的城市，既受到9/11事件造成的经济衰退压力的影响，也受到对新袭击的恐惧的影响。这种方法也将用于评估自然灾害，如卡特里娜飓风对经济活动的影响。对邮政编码级别的经济数据（就业）和最小可用地理范围（建筑级别）的办公市场数据（租金和空置率）进行分析，将使确定恐怖主义风险对美国两个主要中央商务区的影响具有最高的准确性。相对于之前的大多数文献，本研究将使用处理和比较组来评估恐怖主义对中央商务区办公房地产市场的影响，而不是描述9/11之前和之后汇总数据的时间趋势。调查恐怖主义威胁对商业房地产影响的方法和数据将被其他研究人员用于调查恐怖主义和其他威胁对其他市场的影响。因此，本研究将对经济科学作出重大贡献。研究结果将为国家安全领域的公共政策干预提供指导。此外，该方法将扩展到分析其他类型的灾难性风险，特别注意自然灾害。最后，数据库的构建和数据分析将需要研究生作为研究助理参与项目。教育成分和政策含义表明，该研究具有更广泛的影响。

Proposal No: 0617810 Institution: NBER NSF Program: ECONOMICS Principal Investigator: Abadie, Alberto Title: The Economic Impact of Terrorism: Lessons from the Real Estate Office Markets of New York and ChicagoABSTRACT Terrorism or the threats of it have large negative impacts on economic activities. Yet very few studies have been done to quantify the effects of terrorism or the threat of it on economic activities. This research project will employ data from two major Central Business Districts in the U.S. (New York City and Chicago) and up to date econometric methods to investigate the impact of an increased perception of terrorist risk on economic outcomes. Downtown office markets have flourished throughout the years due to economies of agglomeration. However, real estate analysts have suggested that, after the events of September 11, 2001, the value of economies of agglomeration has eroded for cities of certain stature. The New York downtown office market was severely impacted on 9/11, with 44 percent of Manhattans downtown class A space destroyed by the attacks. In addition, the 9/11 attacks increased the perception of terrorist risk in other major U.S. downtowns. Cities like Chicago, with a significant concentration of financial institutions and high-rise buildings were impacted both by the recession pressures created by the 9/11 events and by the fear of a new attack. This methodology will also be used to evaluate the impact of natural disasters, such as hurricane Katrina, on economic activity. Analysis of economic data (employment) at the zip code level and office market data (rents and vacancy rates) at the smallest available geographic scale (at the building level) will allow the highest level of accuracy in determining the effects terrorist risk on two major U.S. Central Business Districts. Relative to most of the previous literature, rather than describing temporal trends in aggregate data before and after 9/11, this study will use treatment and comparison groups in an effort to assess the impact of terrorism on office real estate markets in Central Business Districts. The methodology and data collected to investigate the effects of the threats of terrorism on commercial real estate will be used by other researchers to investigate the impacts of terrorism and other threats on other markets. Thus, this research will contribute significantly to economic science. The results of this study will provide guidance to public policy interventions in the field of national security. Moreover, the methodology will be extended to the analysis to other types of catastrophic risks, with particular attention to natural disasters. Finally, the construction of the database and the data analysis will entail the participation of graduate students in the project as research assistants. The educational component and the policy implications show that the research has broader impacts.