Doctoral Dissertation Research: Agent-Based Exploratory Modeling of Sustainable Land Use Patterns Generated with Multiobjective Spatial Optimization

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Suburbia located in the urban-rural transition zone have an undeniable appeal to many urban dwellers. At the same time, they are characterized by low-density, leapfrog, and fragmented residential patchwork of developed and undeveloped tracts. Such land-use arrangements have led to an increasing ethnical and economic separation, deterioration of the environment, loss of agricultural land and wilderness, and the erosion of society's architectural heritage. This doctoral dissertation research project addresses a question of whether other arrangements of land that ameliorate the negative effects of current growth in the suburban fringe are sustainable and socially acceptable. In order to answer the research question, the doctoral student will employ an integrative form-and-process methodology for urban land-use modeling, where generative spatial optimization is coupled with exploratory spatial agent-based simulation. The methodology will be tested on a small exurban community of Chelan City in the state of Washington, which has been subject to two opposing and competing spatial development forces: endangered salmon protection and a recreation and retirement-bound influx of people from the Puget Sound metropolitan area. The first step of the research will be to generate a number of spatial solutions using a multiobjective land-allocation model, where population growth is directed to infill and redevelopment, with promotion of mixed uses and high build-out density. Whether such sustainable patterns are possible at all in practice given the inconsistency of human spatial decision-making is a major research question. The student will investigate it by using spatial agent-based simulation to test the achievability of sustainable growth management scenarios in an artificial society. The spatial outcomes from the optimization and simulation models will be further used for comparative analysis to identify social interactions among local developers that could lead to sustainable land-use patterns in the real world.The results of this research will contribute to better understanding of the factors that could be used to promote sustainable land use development. Moreover, this study integrates geography with a body of knowledge related to psychology of choice. Prospect decision-making theory, explaining choice-making under various risk attitudes, will be investigated in a number of configurations to verify the social acceptance of anti-sprawl land use arrangements. The novelty of this research lies in its emphasis on the generative and exploratory role of modeling for more informed land use policymaking. The two complementary models will serve as inference engines for browsing through landscapes of spatial information and creating new possibilities of growth accommodation. This research may also lead to an increased recognition of geographic modeling in understanding the complexities of spatio-temporal dynamics of land use change. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award will also provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.