Collaborative Research: The impact of changes in Arctic sea ice on the marine planktonic ecosystem - synthesis and modeling of retrospective and future conditions

合作研究：北极海冰变化对海洋浮游生态系统的影响——回顾性和未来条件的综合和建模

• 批准号: 0629234
• 负责人: Robert Campbell
• 金额: $ 7.39万
• 依托单位: University of Rhode Island
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-15 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0629234&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; impact; changes; Arctic

AbstractSignificant changes in arctic climate have been detected in recent decades. One of the most striking is the decline of sea ice concurrent with changes in atmospheric circulation and increased surface air temperature. This arctic warming trend is likely to continue into the future, leading to a diminished arctic sea ice cover that will significantly impact the arctic marine ecosystem and ultimately arctic and subarctic human communities. It is therefore critical to understand how changes in sea ice influence the marine ecosystem. To this end, this work will investigate the historical and contemporary changes of arctic sea ice, water column, and aspects of the marine ecosystem as an integrated entity, and project future changes associated with a diminished arctic ice cover under several plausible warming scenarios. The focus will be on the marine planktonic ecosystem. The scientific objectives are:1) Synthesize the historical evolution of the arctic biology/ice/ocean system from 1979 to the present to understand the large-scale changes that have occurred in the sea ice, upper ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystem over this period.2) Identify key linkages and interactions between the sea ice, the upper ocean, and the planktonic ecosystem to understand how changes in sea ice affect biogeochemical processes and food-web dynamics.3) Project a diminished ice cover with several warming scenarios to explore the functioning of the planktonic ecosystem in an ice-diminished or summer ice-free Arctic Ocean.This is a two-task research project: retrospective investigations and future projections. The first task aims at synthesis and interpretation of the large-scale changes that have occurred in arctic sea ice, upper ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystems over the past three decades. The second aims at qualitatively and quantitatively examining the impact of a diminished ice cover on the structure and functioning of the marine ecosystem. To achieve these, this group will construct a coupled pan-arctic Biology/Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS) for synthesis and modeling of the integrated arctic system of ice cover, ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystem. BIOMAS will synthesize physical and biological observations through model parameterization/calibration and data assimilation. This unique system is a significant advance in integrated biology/ice/ocean modeling and assimilation that will provide the best possible estimates of the impact of changes in ice cover on the arctic marine planktonic ecosystem on decadal and pan-arctic scales, both retrospectively and predictively.

近几十年来，已经检测到北极气候的摘要分解。最引人注目的之一是，随着大气循环变化和表面空气温度的升高，海冰的下降。这种北极变暖趋势可能会持续到未来，从而导致北极海冰覆盖率减少，这将显着影响北极海洋生态系统以及最终北极和​​亚北极人类社区。因此，了解海冰变化如何影响海洋生态系统至关重要。为此，这项工作将调查北极海冰，水柱以及海洋生态系统作为综合实体的历史和当代变化，并在几个合理的变暖方案下，将未来的变化与北极冰覆盖率下降相关。重点将放在海洋浮游生态系统上。科学目标是：1）合成从1979年到现在的北极生物学/冰/海洋系统的历史演变，以了解此期间海冰，上海和海洋浮游生物生态系统中发生的大规模变化。 3）冰覆盖率下降，并使用几个变暖场景，以探索浮游生物生态系统在冰上脱落或夏季无冰北极海洋中的功能。这是一项两任务研究项目：回顾性研究和未来的项目。第一个任务旨在综合和解释过去三十年来北极海冰，上海和海洋浮游生物生态系统发生的大规模变化。第二个目的是在定性和定量检查冰覆盖物对海洋生态系统结构和功能的影响。为了实现这些目标，该组将构建一个耦合的泛氧化生物学/冰/海洋建模和同化系统（BIOMAS），以合成和建模冰覆盖，海洋和海洋浮游生物生态系统。生物群岛将通过模型参数化/校准和数据同化来综合物理和生物学观察。这种独特的系统是整合生物学/冰/海洋建模和同化的重大进步，它将为冰覆盖的变化对北极海洋浮游生物生态系统的影响提供最佳的估计，从而回顾性地和预测性地对年代衰老和泛极尺度。