Collaborative Research: The impact of changes in Arctic sea ice on the marine planktonic ecosystem - synthesis and modeling of retrospective and future conditions

摘要近几十年来，北极气候发生了显著变化。其中最引人注目的是海冰的减少，同时大气环流的变化和地表气温的上升。这种北极变暖的趋势可能会持续到未来，导致北极海冰覆盖的减少，这将严重影响北极海洋生态系统，并最终影响北极和亚北极的人类社区。因此，了解海冰的变化如何影响海洋生态系统至关重要。为此，这项工作将作为一个整体调查北极海冰、水柱和海洋生态系统各方面的历史和当代变化，并在几种看似合理的变暖情景下预测与北极冰盖减少相关的未来变化。重点将放在海洋浮游生态系统上。科学目标是：1)综合从1979年到现在的北极生物/冰/海洋系统的历史演变，以了解在此期间海冰、上层海洋和海洋浮游生态系统发生的大范围变化。2)确定海冰、上层海洋、这是一个两项任务的研究项目：回顾调查和未来预测。第一项任务旨在综合和解释北极海冰、上层海洋和海洋浮游生态系统在过去30年中发生的大范围变化。第二项研究的目的是定性和定量地研究冰盖减少对海洋生态系统结构和功能的影响。为了实现这些目标，该小组将建立一个耦合的泛北极生物学/冰/海洋模拟和同化系统(BIOAS)，以合成和模拟北极冰盖、海洋和海洋浮游生态系统的综合系统。BIOAS将通过模式参数化/校准和数据同化来综合物理和生物观测。这一独特的系统是在综合生物/冰/海洋模拟和同化方面取得的重大进展，它将对冰盖变化对北极海洋浮游生态系统在十年和泛北极尺度上的影响提供可能的最佳估计，既有追溯性又有预测性。

AbstractSignificant changes in arctic climate have been detected in recent decades. One of the most striking is the decline of sea ice concurrent with changes in atmospheric circulation and increased surface air temperature. This arctic warming trend is likely to continue into the future, leading to a diminished arctic sea ice cover that will significantly impact the arctic marine ecosystem and ultimately arctic and subarctic human communities. It is therefore critical to understand how changes in sea ice influence the marine ecosystem. To this end, this work will investigate the historical and contemporary changes of arctic sea ice, water column, and aspects of the marine ecosystem as an integrated entity, and project future changes associated with a diminished arctic ice cover under several plausible warming scenarios. The focus will be on the marine planktonic ecosystem. The scientific objectives are:1) Synthesize the historical evolution of the arctic biology/ice/ocean system from 1979 to the present to understand the large-scale changes that have occurred in the sea ice, upper ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystem over this period.2) Identify key linkages and interactions between the sea ice, the upper ocean, and the planktonic ecosystem to understand how changes in sea ice affect biogeochemical processes and food-web dynamics.3) Project a diminished ice cover with several warming scenarios to explore the functioning of the planktonic ecosystem in an ice-diminished or summer ice-free Arctic Ocean.This is a two-task research project: retrospective investigations and future projections. The first task aims at synthesis and interpretation of the large-scale changes that have occurred in arctic sea ice, upper ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystems over the past three decades. The second aims at qualitatively and quantitatively examining the impact of a diminished ice cover on the structure and functioning of the marine ecosystem. To achieve these, this group will construct a coupled pan-arctic Biology/Ice/Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (BIOMAS) for synthesis and modeling of the integrated arctic system of ice cover, ocean, and marine planktonic ecosystem. BIOMAS will synthesize physical and biological observations through model parameterization/calibration and data assimilation. This unique system is a significant advance in integrated biology/ice/ocean modeling and assimilation that will provide the best possible estimates of the impact of changes in ice cover on the arctic marine planktonic ecosystem on decadal and pan-arctic scales, both retrospectively and predictively.