Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Impact of electrification on labor market, schooling and health outcomes in South Africa

经济学博士论文研究：电气化对南非劳动力市场、学校教育和健康结果的影响

• 批准号: 0649443
• 负责人: David Lam
• 金额: $ 0.8万
• 依托单位: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-02-01 至 2008-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0649443&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Economics; Impact

What is the developmental impact of electrifying a country? What happens to adult labor market outcomes and the schooling and health outcomes of children when households get electricity? This project provides evidence on the fundamental role of energy infrastructure in the development process from a microeconomic perspective. The evidence is drawn from South Africa's recent mass electrification roll-out. In 5 years after the end of apartheid, 1994-1999, household electrification rates increased at an almost unprecedented rate from 36% to 68% in a 'blanket electrification'. The project measures how much labor and school time is released back into the economy after this electrification and to what extent respiratory disease-related deaths in young children decline. It also focuses on determining how these effects are distributed within and across households.Physical infrastructure is believed to be fundamental to development and yet there is little consensus on how this relationship works or on how large the impact of infrastructure is supposed to be. This study provides some answers to these questions by combining three important research elements. First, the project uses data spanning periods of infrastructure roll-out that are generally hard to come by. The data are high quality Census data (early on and later in the expansion), several nationally representative household surveys and a province-based household panel data set. Administrative and technical data on electrification and mortality-cause data for one part of South Africa will supplement these surveys. Second, this project addresses the issue of non-random allocation of infrastructure by combining matching methods with a difference-in-differences research design. A convincing control group for treated areas is constructed by taking into account geographic constraints on grid expansion. Third, the research is based in an explicit time-use framework that allows the authors to look for effects in specific places. The framework predicts that the impact of electrification will be larger for women and children (who spend more time in home production) than for men, and respiratory disease deaths should fall more for younger children(who spend more time indoors) than for older children. Broader impact: UN-Energy (2006) reports that 1.6 billion people are currently without access to electricity. If the project results indicate that electrification integrates women into the labor market, helps children to complete secondary school and reduces preventable child mortality, then another tool for reaching three of the Millenium Development Goals will have been uncovered. This could be a powerful tool in Africa where over 60% of people still rely on traditional fuels. In addition, cost/benefit decisions about public or private sector infrastructure developments may be altered once some of the less obvious and longer term benefits of electrification are measured and included. Finally, the electrification and health data to be collected using this grant will be useful for other researchers and planners. With the permission of participating institutions, electrification data will be released as a supplement to an already available South African panel survey, while the electronically captured health data will be provided to relevant health and local government departments for use in planning and policy-making.

对一个国家的发展有什么影响？当家庭获得电力时，成人劳动力市场的结果以及儿童的教育和健康结果会发生什么？该项目从微观经济角度提供证据，说明能源基础设施在发展进程中的根本作用。证据来自南非最近的大规模电气化推广。在种族隔离结束后的5年里，1994-1999年，家庭电气化率以几乎前所未有的速度从36%增加到68%。该项目衡量了电气化后有多少劳动力和上学时间被释放回经济，以及幼儿呼吸道疾病相关死亡率下降的程度。它还着重于确定这些影响如何在家庭内部和家庭之间分布，有形基础设施被认为是发展的根本，但对于这种关系如何运作或基础设施的影响应该有多大，却没有什么共识。本研究通过结合三个重要的研究要素来回答这些问题。首先，该项目使用跨越基础设施推出期间的数据，这些数据通常很难获得。这些数据是高质量的人口普查数据（早期和后期的扩展），几项具有全国代表性的家庭调查和一个以省为基础的家庭面板数据集。关于电气化的行政和技术数据以及南非一个地区的死亡原因数据将补充这些调查。 其次，本项目通过将匹配方法与差异中的差异研究设计相结合，解决了基础设施的非随机分配问题。一个令人信服的控制组的治疗领域构造考虑到地理限制网格扩展。第三，这项研究是基于一个明确的时间使用框架，允许作者在特定的地方寻找效果。该框架预测，电气化对妇女和儿童（他们花更多时间在家生产）的影响将大于对男子的影响，呼吸系统疾病死亡人数对年幼儿童（他们花更多时间在室内）的影响应大于对年长儿童的影响。更广泛的影响：联合国能源机制（2006年）报告说，目前有16亿人用不上电。如果项目结果表明电气化将妇女纳入劳动力市场，帮助儿童完成中学学业，并降低可预防的儿童死亡率，那么就发现了实现三个千年发展目标的另一个工具。在非洲，这可能是一个强大的工具，那里60%以上的人仍然依赖传统燃料。此外，一旦衡量和纳入电气化的一些不太明显和较长期的好处，关于公共或私营部门基础设施发展的成本/效益决定可能会改变。最后，利用这笔赠款收集的电气化和健康数据将对其他研究人员和规划人员有用。在参与机构的许可下，将公布电气化数据，作为对南非现有小组调查的补充，同时将向有关卫生和地方政府部门提供电子采集的健康数据，供规划和决策使用。