Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Econometric Evaluation of Costa Rica's Payments for Environmental Services: Scaling up Sample Size and Study Area

哥斯达黎加在经历了世纪后半叶世界上最高的森林砍伐率之后，在过去十年中增加了森林覆盖率。与此同时，哥斯达黎加政府实施了环境服务付费方案，旨在鼓励私人土地所有者进行保护，这些人拥有哥斯达黎加一半以上的森林。 虽然这是直接支付环境服务的最著名的例子之一，但显然缺乏经验证据来确定该方案是否以及在多大程度上促进了哥斯达黎加森林覆盖率的增加。 该项目将（1）详细了解哥斯达黎加环境服务付费方案执行过程中的时间和空间变化，以及影响不同规模参与的因素（家庭和地区）（2）通过扩大样本量，在案例研究地区扩大NSF资助的对该计划的持续评估，以及（3）在区域范围内提供“概念证明”匹配。假设是：（1）养护费产生森林面积的净增加;（2）使用家庭层面的数据对哥斯达黎加森林覆盖方案的因果效应进行的估计与使用区域层面的次级数据获得的估计具有可比性。拟议的论文将建立在现有的国家科学基金会资助的研究基础上（SES，0519194），题为私人提供公共产品：应用匹配估计评估热带森林保护的“直接付款”。收集了方案参与者和非参与者样本的家庭和财产一级社会经济和生物物理特征的横截面数据，并将其与森林覆盖变化的分类遥感图像相结合。拟于2007年上半年开展的实地工作将通过以下方式补充现有数据：（1）与主要参与者进行半结构化访谈，以了解1997年至2005年方案执行过程中的时空变化;（2）利用新的图像来源对森林覆盖进行分类;（3）编制GIS图层，包括整个哥斯达黎加的生物物理和社会经济特征以及人口普查段的边界，以及（4）开发有关土地机会成本的地理参考信息。更广泛的影响：拟议的研究建立在一个试点研究已经由美国国家科学基金会资助，应用程序评估技术，以广泛推广的保护政策。通过对哥斯达黎加项目的大样本和全国范围的评估，本研究为热带雨林保护政策工具的辩论提供了信息。 这项研究也有助于文献的规划评估，通过expanatingspatial信息，测试不同尺度的分析，并估计因果关系的影响，在发展中国家的保护政策。 拟议的实地调查结果在一个案例研究区域和所有的哥斯达黎加丰富的数据集。拟议的分析结果在会议上发言，提交同行评审的期刊，培训哥斯达黎加学生，和博士论文。

After experiencing one of the world's highest rates of deforestation in the latter half of the twentieth century, Costa Rica has gained forest cover in the past decade. At the same time, the Costa Rican government implemented the Program of Payments for Environmental Services, which is designed to encourage conservation by private landholders, who own more than half of Costa Rica's forest. Although this is one of the best known examples of direct payments for environmental services, empirical evidence to determine whether and to what degree the program contributed to the increase in forest cover in Costa Rica is notably lacking. This project will (1) develop a detailed understanding of the temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of the Costa Rican Program of Payments for Environmental Services and of the factors that influence participation at different scales (household and regions) (2) extend an on-going NSFfunded evaluation of this program in a case study region by scaling up the sample size, and (3) provide 'proof of concept' matching at a regional scale. The hypotheses are that (1) conservation payments generate a net increase in forest area; (2) estimates of the causal effects of the Costa Rican program on forest cover using data at the household level are comparable with estimates obtained using secondary data at the regional level.The proposed dissertation will build on existing National Science Foundation funded research (SES, 0519194) entitled Private Provision of Public Goods: Applying Matching Estimators to Evaluate 'Direct Payments' for Tropical Forest Conservation. Cross sectional data on socio-economic and biophysical characteristics at the household and property level have been collected for samples of participants and nonparticipants in the program and combined with classified remote sensing imagery of forest cover change. The proposed fieldwork to be undertaken during the first semester of 2007 will complement existing data through (1) semi-structured interviews with key players in order to understand the spatial and temporal variation in implementation of the program from 1997 to 2005; (2) classifying forest cover using new sources of imagery; (3) compiling GIS layers including biophysical and socio-economic characteristics andboundaries of census segments for all of Costa Rica, and (4) developing geo-referenced information on land opportunity costs.Broader Impacts: The proposed research builds on a pilot study already funded by NSF to apply program evaluation techniques to a widely-promoted conservation policy. Through large-sample and national-scale evaluation of the Costa Rica program, this study informs the debate over policy tools for conservation of tropical rainforest. This study also contributes to the literature on program evaluation by incorporatingspatial information, testing different scales of analysis, and estimating causal effects of conservation policy in a developing country. The proposed fieldwork results in a rich dataset for both a case study region and all of Costa Rica. The proposed analyses results in conference presentations, submissions to peer reviewed journals, training for Costa Rica students, and a doctoral dissertation.