SGER: DHS and NSF Collaboration: Developing Polls to Test Theories of Radicalization and Potential for Radicalization

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SES- 0651996Clark McCauleyBryn Mawr College Terrorists are the apex of a pyramid of supporters and sympathizers of anti-government activities, and the threat of terrorism can be measured in terms of expansions and contractions in the number of sympathizers and supporters in the base of the pyramid. Group dynamics psychology posits that as threats from an out-group increases, in-group cohesion, with resulting increased support for in-group norms and values, and support for in-group leaders and increased sanction directed at deviates from in-group norms also increases. When external threat declines or is perceived to decline, in-group cohesion declines and radical groups emerge. Public opinions surveys can be used to gauge and track shifts in attitudes reflective of political radicalization. Thus, the longer term goal of the proposed research is to develop a system of public opinion polling that tracks changes in the feelings, beliefs, and behavioral tendencies (i.e., sympathy and support for terrorism) by groups that in turn provides a data resource that can be used to further test existing theoretical developments regarding dynamics involved in group psychology. The immediate objectives of this proposal are to: develop and test the polling items required, initiate a fast-turnaround polling procedure using these items that focuses on Americans 18-30, and provide an initial U.S. benchmark survey for these items. National surveys are proposed that will employ opinion items from previous surveys and new items developed for this research. The first survey (2006), will focus on item development and an experimental assessment of the link between government threat and activist responses and will be implemented via Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), with about 100 respondents and 17 items in each of eight conditions. The second survey (2007) will test items and compare results of two fast-turnaround surveys focused on 18-30 year old respondents; one survey will use RDD (rapid digit dialing) sampling and the second will use a web survey panel. The third survey (2008) will use improved items in a repetition of both RDD and panel surveys at the same time as these items are used in one wave of the American National Election Survey (ANES) Panel. The public opinion polling data will contribute to the broader objective of developing early warning indicators of domestic terrorism in the U.S.