SGER: DHS and NSF Collaboration: Developing Polls to Test Theories of Radicalization and Potential for Radicalization

SGER：国土安全部和国家科学基金会的合作：开展民意调查来测试激进化理论和激进化潜力

• 批准号: 0651996
• 负责人: Clark McCauley
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Bryn Mawr College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-11-15 至 2009-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0651996&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SGER; DHS; NSF; Collaboration; Developing

SES- 0651996Clark McCauleyBryn Mawr College Terrorists are the apex of a pyramid of supporters and sympathizers of anti-government activities, and the threat of terrorism can be measured in terms of expansions and contractions in the number of sympathizers and supporters in the base of the pyramid. Group dynamics psychology posits that as threats from an out-group increases, in-group cohesion, with resulting increased support for in-group norms and values, and support for in-group leaders and increased sanction directed at deviates from in-group norms also increases. When external threat declines or is perceived to decline, in-group cohesion declines and radical groups emerge. Public opinions surveys can be used to gauge and track shifts in attitudes reflective of political radicalization. Thus, the longer term goal of the proposed research is to develop a system of public opinion polling that tracks changes in the feelings, beliefs, and behavioral tendencies (i.e., sympathy and support for terrorism) by groups that in turn provides a data resource that can be used to further test existing theoretical developments regarding dynamics involved in group psychology. The immediate objectives of this proposal are to: develop and test the polling items required, initiate a fast-turnaround polling procedure using these items that focuses on Americans 18-30, and provide an initial U.S. benchmark survey for these items. National surveys are proposed that will employ opinion items from previous surveys and new items developed for this research. The first survey (2006), will focus on item development and an experimental assessment of the link between government threat and activist responses and will be implemented via Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), with about 100 respondents and 17 items in each of eight conditions. The second survey (2007) will test items and compare results of two fast-turnaround surveys focused on 18-30 year old respondents; one survey will use RDD (rapid digit dialing) sampling and the second will use a web survey panel. The third survey (2008) will use improved items in a repetition of both RDD and panel surveys at the same time as these items are used in one wave of the American National Election Survey (ANES) Panel. The public opinion polling data will contribute to the broader objective of developing early warning indicators of domestic terrorism in the U.S.

克拉克·麦考利·布林·莫尔学院恐怖分子是反政府活动支持者和同情者金字塔的顶端，恐怖主义的威胁可以通过金字塔底部同情者和支持者人数的扩大和收缩来衡量。群体动力学心理学假设，随着来自群体外的威胁的增加，群体内的凝聚力也随之增加，从而增加了对群体内规范和价值观的支持，对群体内领导人的支持以及对偏离群体内规范的惩罚的增加。当外部威胁下降或被认为下降时，集团内的凝聚力就会下降，激进组织就会出现。民意调查可以用来衡量和跟踪反映政治激进化的态度转变。因此，拟议研究的长期目标是开发一个民意调查系统，该系统跟踪群体在情感、信念和行为倾向(即对恐怖主义的同情和支持)方面的变化，进而提供一个数据资源，可以用来进一步测试关于群体心理学涉及的动力学的现有理论发展。这项提案的直接目标是：开发和测试所需的民调项目，使用这些项目启动以18-30岁美国人为重点的快速周转民调程序，并为这些项目提供初步的美国基准调查。建议的全国性调查将采用以前调查中的意见项目和为这项研究开发的新项目。第一次调查(2006年)将侧重于项目开发和对政府威胁与激进分子反应之间联系的试验性评估，并将通过社会科学分时实验(TESS)实施，约有100名受访者，在八种情况下各有17个项目。第二项调查(2007年)将测试项目并比较两项以18-30岁受访者为重点的快速调查的结果；一项调查将使用RDD(快速数字拨号)抽样，另一项调查将使用网络调查小组。第三次调查(2008年)将在RDD和小组调查的重复中使用改进的项目，同时在美国国家选举调查小组的一波调查中使用这些项目。民意调查数据将有助于更广泛的目标，即开发美国国内恐怖主义的早期预警指标。