CNH: Collaborative Research: The Impact of Economic Globalization on Human Demography, Land Use, and Natural Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean

CNH：合作研究：经济全球化对拉丁美洲和加勒比地区人口、土地利用和自然系统的影响

• 批准号: 0709606
• 负责人: Marc Levy
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0709606&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Impact; Economic

The globalization of the world's economy is impacting all aspects of human and natural systems. Many of these impacts are positive (e.g. poverty reduction), but there are also negative effects, particularly for natural systems due to the increasing demand for natural resources of a growing and more affluent population. Furthermore, rural inhabitants, particularly young people, are migrating to regional urban centers or to more developed economies (e.g., the United States), because they are attracted by opportunities of better jobs, education, and health services. These unprecedented changes in both demographic factors (e.g., rapid urbanization, international migration, falling rural fertility and mortality) and economic factors (e.g. expansion of non-agricultural industries, decreasing price of agricultural produce, emigrant remittances, emergence of large-scale modern agriculture, and increasing global demand for food and petroleum alternatives) are predicted to lead to the following land-use transitions: 1 ) Extensive conversion of native ecosystems to modern agriculture, particularly in areas with little topographic relief (e.g. soybean production in South American dry forest ecosystems), and 2) Abandonment of marginal agricultural and grazing lands, particularly in mountainous and remote regions, permitting ecosystem recovery. To test these predictions, the project will combine demographic and socio-economic data from 18,000 municipalities throughout Latin America and Caribbean with remote sensing analyses of land-cover/land-use change for the period 1980-2000. In addition, the project will document how these demographic and land-use changes are affecting natural ecosystem and local inhabitants by conducting ecosystem inventories and household interviews in selected countries. This project will create a large database, which will allow us to model the complex interaction between and among human and natural systems. The study should reveal new concepts that will facilitate society's understanding of the socioeconomic and biodiversity consequences of global change. The major contribution will be a detailed database that integrates demographic, economic, land-use, and ecosystem data at multiple spatial scales. This information will be used to create continental-scale models of land-use change, and these models will be used to facilitate local governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in regional to local planning. Another important benefit will be the development of young interdisciplinary scientists. Environmental problems are complex, and even when multidisciplinary groups are assembled, the success of these teams depends on a few key people that have cross-disciplinary experience. This project is supported by an award resulting from the FY2006 special competition on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

世界经济全球化正在影响人类和自然系统的各个方面。其中许多影响是积极的（例如减少贫困），但也存在负面影响，特别是由于人口不断增长和富裕而对自然资源的需求不断增加，对自然系统而言尤其如此。此外，农村居民，特别是年轻人，正在迁移到区域城市中心或更发达的经济体（例如美国），因为他们被更好的工作、教育和医疗服务机会所吸引。人口因素（例如快速城市化、国际移民、农村生育率和死亡率下降）和经济因素（例如非农业产业扩张、农产品价格下降、移民汇款、大规模现代农业的出现以及全球对食品和石油替代品的需求不断增加）的这些前所未有的变化预计将导致以下土地利用转变：1） 本土生态系统向现代农业的广泛转变，特别是在地形起伏很小的地区（例如南美干旱森林生态系统中的大豆生产），以及 2) 放弃边际农业和牧场，特别是在山区和偏远地区，从而使生态系统得以恢复。为了检验这些预测，该项目将把拉丁美洲和加勒比地区 18,000 个城市的人口和社会经济数据与 1980-2000 年期间土地覆盖/土地利用变化的遥感分析结合起来。此外，该项目还将通过在选定国家进行生态系统清查和家庭访谈，记录这些人口和土地利用变化如何影响自然生态系统和当地居民。该项目将创建一个大型数据库，使我们能够对人类与自然系统之间复杂的相互作用进行建模。该研究应揭示新概念，以促进社会理解全球变化对社会经济和生物多样性造成的后果。主要贡献将是一个详细的数据库，整合了多个空间尺度的人口、经济、土地利用和生态系统数据。这些信息将用于创建大陆规模的土地利用变化模型，这些模型将用于促进地方政府和非政府组织 (NGO) 进行区域到地方规划。另一个重要的好处将是年轻跨学科科学家的发展。环境问题很复杂，即使组建了多学科团队，这些团队的成功也取决于少数具有跨学科经验的关键人物。该项目得到了 2006 财年自然与人类系统耦合动力学特别竞赛奖项的支持。