HSD: Collaborative Research: Human-Related Factors Affecting Emerging Infectious Diseases

HSD：合作研究：影响新发传染病的人类相关因素

• 批准号: 0826840
• 负责人: Marc Levy
• 金额: $ 23.13万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-10-01 至 2012-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0826840&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: HSD; Collaborative; Research; Human; Related

One of the products of human development and population growth is global-scale alteration of the environment, as evidenced by changes in water supply and climate. Environmental change is also evident in the transformation of ecosystems, with accompanying biodiversity loss, biological invasions, and emerging diseases). This interdisciplinary research project aims to understand how these changes affect the global pattern of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). These diseases are a major threat to human health and the economy in the U.S. and elsewhere. They result in hundreds of thousands of human lives lost annually and tens of billions of dollars to national and global economies. Despite these impacts and billions of dollars spent on drug and vaccine development, there has been little progress in understanding how anthropogenic changes drive the risk of disease emergence globally, nor in developing predictive and preventive approaches to these threats. The investigator's main hypothesis is that socioeconomic and environmental changes, together with disease traits, shape global patterns of disease distribution and emergence. Previous studies have proposed that disease emergence is driven by human population expansion, migration, land-use change, climate change, changes to agriculture and medical technology, increased susceptibility to infection, and other factors. They will test these hypotheses by integrating global-scale socioeconomic and environmental data sets with biogeographic data on wildlife, human and livestock populations, and pathogen distributions. First, they will determine the major drivers of emerging infectious diseases by analyzing the linkages among global spatial datasets on recent changes in socioeconomic and environmental data and the global distribution of zoonotic, food-borne, vector-borne, and drug-resistant EIDs. They then will develop predictive models of current and future risk of disease emergence based on recent changes to and projected trends in human-related drivers. They will use spatial mathematical models to identify geographic regions where there is high potential for disease emergence at local scales and for pandemic (global) spread.This project will provide education and training opportunities for fifteen undergraduate and graduate students on summer research projects and a postdoctoral assistant. The investigators will make their databases available online to the scientific community through web data portals. They will produce peer-reviewed publications, engage in offer media interviews, make conference presentations, give policy-relevant briefings, and work with developing country non-governmental organization leaders who incorporate environmental health issues into their programs. They will disseminate their results to national and intergovernmental agencies of public health (WHO, CDC), development (UNDP, IDRC), trade (FAO, OIE), and conservation (IUCN, DIVERSITAS, UNESCO, UNEP, EPA). The project's ultimate goal is to have its research results and products used to help decide how best to allocate the scarce funds and resources available for surveillance and control of disease in global public health and development. An award resulting from the FY 2008 NSF-wide competition on Human and Social Dynamics (HSD) supports this project. All NSF directorates and offices are involved in the coordinated management of the HSD competition and the portfolio of HSD awards.

人类发展和人口增长的产物之一是全球范围的环境变化，供水和气候的变化就是明证。环境变化在生态系统的转变中也很明显，随之而来的是生物多样性的丧失、生物入侵和新出现的疾病。这一跨学科研究项目旨在了解这些变化如何影响新发传染病(EID)的全球格局。在美国和其他地方，这些疾病是对人类健康和经济的主要威胁。它们每年导致数十万人丧生，给国家和全球经济造成数百亿美元的损失。尽管有这些影响，并在药物和疫苗开发上花费了数十亿美元，但在理解人为变化如何导致全球出现疾病风险方面，以及在制定针对这些威胁的预测性和预防性方法方面，进展甚微。研究人员的主要假设是，社会经济和环境变化与疾病特征一起塑造了疾病分布和出现的全球模式。以前的研究提出，疾病的出现是由人口扩张、移民、土地使用变化、气候变化、农业和医疗技术的变化、对感染的敏感性增加以及其他因素推动的。他们将通过将全球范围的社会经济和环境数据集与野生动物、人类和牲畜种群以及病原体分布的生物地理数据相结合来检验这些假设。首先，他们将通过分析关于社会经济和环境数据最新变化的全球空间数据集与人畜共患病、食源性、传播性和抗药性EID的全球分布之间的联系，确定新出现的传染病的主要驱动因素。然后，他们将根据人类相关驱动因素的最近变化和预测趋势，开发当前和未来疾病出现风险的预测模型。他们将使用空间数学模型来确定局部范围内疾病出现和大流行(全球)传播的高可能性的地理区域。该项目将为15名本科生和研究生提供暑期研究项目的教育和培训机会，以及一名博士后助理。研究人员将通过网络数据门户网站向科学界在线提供他们的数据库。他们将制作同行评议的出版物，参与提供媒体采访，做会议演讲，进行与政策相关的简报，并与将环境健康问题纳入其计划的发展中国家非政府组织领导人合作。它们将向国家和政府间公共卫生机构(世卫组织、疾控中心)、发展机构(开发计划署、国际疾病控制与预防中心)、贸易机构(粮农组织、世界动物卫生组织)和保护机构(自然保护联盟、国际疾病控制与预防中心、教科文组织、环境署、环境保护局)传播其成果。该项目的最终目标是将其研究成果和产品用于帮助决定如何最好地分配可用于监测和控制全球公共卫生和发展中的疾病的稀缺资金和资源。2008财年NSF人类和社会动力学竞赛(HSD)颁发的奖项支持这一项目。NSF的所有董事和办公室都参与了HSD竞赛和HSD奖项组合的协调管理。