CNH: Coupling Hydrologic, Economic, and Social Network Models to Improve Understanding of Surface Water-Groundwater Interactions for Protection of Instream Flows

CNH：耦合水文、经济和社会网络模型，以提高对地表水与地下水相互作用的理解，从而保护内河流量

• 批准号: 0709735
• 负责人: Nicholas Brozovic
• 金额: $ 99.9万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-08-15 至 2013-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0709735&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Coupling; Hydrologic; Economic; Social

In many regions of the world, agricultural, urban, and environmental water users share the same sources of water. In recent years, a major source of water conflict has been the increased extraction of groundwater from areas that are physically connected to rivers and streams with a resulting loss of instream flows. The impacts of decreased instream flows include reduction of habitat for fish and migratory birds, changes in stream and riparian zone form and habitat, and decreases in water availability for dam and reservoir operation, recreation, and downstream uses. Although hydrologists have long conducted field studies of the physical aspects of groundwater-surface water exchange, little is known about the feedbacks operating between natural and human components of complex surface water-groundwater systems, which are uncertain, spatially variable, and may include nonlinear and threshold behavior. Two sites for studying surface water-groundwater systems where an understanding of the complex interactions between human and natural components is critical to effective policy design are the Kankakee River Basin in Illinois and the Republican River Basin in Nebraska and Kansas. As a result of groundwater pumping, both areas have experienced reduced stream flows that are of concern to policymakers. The two basins differ dramatically in terms of economics, institutions, history of management, stakeholder conflict, and current policies, however. The objectives of this interdisciplinary research project are (1) to quantify the economic and social impacts of parameter, model, and behavioral uncertainty in coupled surface water-groundwater systems; (2) to evaluate how spatial and temporal variability in hydrologic processes, individual and social group behavior can affect policy design and decision consequences in surface water-groundwater systems; (3) to analyze the impacts of decision making processes on the development of socially acceptable surface water-groundwater management policies; and (4) to develop efficient and socially acceptable policies to manage surface water-groundwater systems in order to maintain instream water flows. Methods to be used by the investigators in this study include numerical Bayesian modeling, spatial optimization, a stochastic multi-agent system, econometric analysis, social network analysis, geographical information systems, and advanced visualization techniques. The research will address fundamental hydrologic and socioeconomic questions while also integrating training and learning activities for K-12 and graduate students and outreach activities for local and international stakeholders.This research will provide significant advances in the development and calibration of natural system models that integrate feedbacks between and uncertainty in natural processes and human behavior. The improved scientific models derived from this research will advance policy design that maintains or improves instream environmental conditions while improving economic prospects and minimizing the potential for stakeholder conflict. By evaluating alternative policy frameworks in the simulation model, the investigators will provide practical information regarding how to improve water resource management and reduce stakeholder conflict in the two study areas. Research findings also will be of general interest in many parts of the world where coupled surface water-groundwater systems are the source of conflict. This project is supported by an award resulting from the NSF competition focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

在世界许多地区，农业、城市和环境用水者共享相同的水源。近年来，水冲突的一个主要来源是从与河流和溪流实际相连的地区更多地开采地下水，从而造成河流流量的损失。内河流量减少的影响包括鱼类和候鸟栖息地的减少，溪流和河岸带形态和栖息地的变化，以及用于大坝和水库运行、娱乐和下游用途的水资源减少。尽管水文学家长期以来对地下水-地表水交换的物理方面进行了实地研究，但对复杂的地表水-地下水系统的自然和人类成分之间的反馈作用知之甚少，这些反馈是不确定的、空间可变的，可能包括非线性和阈值行为。研究地表水-地下水系统的两个地点是伊利诺伊州的坎卡基河流域和内布拉斯加州和堪萨斯州的共和河流域，在这两个地点，了解人类和自然成分之间的复杂相互作用对于有效的政策设计至关重要。由于地下水开采，这两个地区的河流流量都减少了，这是政策制定者关注的问题。然而，这两个盆地在经济、制度、管理历史、利益相关者冲突和当前政策方面存在巨大差异。这一跨学科研究项目的目标是：(1)量化地表水-地下水耦合系统中参数、模型和行为不确定性对经济和社会的影响；(2)评估水文过程、个人和社会群体行为的时空变异性如何影响地表水-地下水系统的政策设计和决策结果；(3)分析决策过程对制定社会可接受的地表水-地下水管理政策的影响；(4)制定有效和社会可接受的地表水-地下水系统管理政策，以维持地下水的流动。研究人员使用的方法包括数值贝叶斯建模、空间优化、随机多主体系统、计量经济学分析、社会网络分析、地理信息系统和高级可视化技术。这项研究将解决基本的水文学和社会经济问题，同时还将整合针对K-12和研究生的培训和学习活动，以及针对当地和国际利益攸关方的外联活动。这项研究将在自然系统模型的开发和校准方面取得重大进展，该模型将自然过程和人类行为之间的反馈和不确定性整合在一起。这项研究得出的改进的科学模型将推动政策设计，在改善经济前景和最大限度地减少利益攸关方冲突的可能性的同时，维持或改善内河环境条件。通过评估模拟模型中的替代政策框架，调查人员将提供关于如何改进水资源管理和减少两个研究领域的利益攸关方冲突的实用信息。在地表水-地下水耦合系统是冲突根源的世界许多地区，研究结果也将引起普遍关注。该项目由自然与人类系统相互作用的国家自然科学基金会竞赛所颁发的奖项支持。