Dissertation Research: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Monarch Butterflies

全球气候的持续变化可能会严重改变众所周知的帝王蝶的年度周期。来自公民科学监测项目的数据被用来预测夏季范围北移。这将需要更长时间和更快的迁徙，君主可能会失去大部分繁殖范围。该项目将调查热应激对帝王蝶的影响，并评估它们跟踪栖息地位置变化的能力。幼虫将在不利的条件下饲养，并将确定存活成虫的迁徙状态。有证据表明，德克萨斯州的君主正在改变他们的迁徙模式。实地、实验室和移植研究将确定帝王是否对当前的环境变化做出反应，例如引入非本土乳草或已经在变化的气候。这表明它们的迁徙行为具有一定的可塑性，这可能使它们能够应对未来的气候变化。这项拟议的研究依赖于通过帝王幼虫监测项目收集的数据，该项目旨在让公民参与研究，以更好地了解帝王生物学。即使对于像帝王鸟这样研究得很充分的物种，也需要更多的信息来充分保护它们免受像气候变化这样大的威胁。帝王鸟在公众中是众所周知的，几乎是标志性的物种，因此，这项研究可以作为人类气候变化对物种分布影响的一个例子。

Ongoing changes in the global climate could severely alter the well-known annual cycle of the monarch butterfly. Data from a citizen-science monitoring program was used to predict a northward summer range shift. This will necessitate a longer and faster migration, and monarchs could lose much of their breeding range. This project will investigate the effects of heat stress on monarch butterflies and assess their ability to track changes in habitat location. Larvae will be reared in unfavorable conditions and the migratory status of surviving adults will be determined. There is evidence that monarchs in Texas are changing their migratory patterns. Field, lab, and transplant studies will determine if monarchs are responding to current environmental changes, such as the introduction of non-native milkweed or an already changing climate. This indicates a level of plasticity in their migratory behavior that could allow them to cope with future climate change.The proposed research relies on data gathered through the Monarch Larva Monitoring Project, a program created to involve citizens in research to better understand monarch biology. Even for a species as well-studied as the monarch, more information is necessary for adequate protection from a threat as large as climate change. Monarchs are a well-known and almost iconic species among the public and as such, this study could serve as an example of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species distributions.