Dissertation Research: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Monarch Butterflies

全球气候的持续变化可能会严重改变帝王蝶众所周知的年度周期。来自公民科学监测计划的数据被用来预测夏季范围向北移动。这将需要更长更快的迁徙，帝王蝶可能会失去大部分的繁殖范围。该项目将调查热应激对帝王蝶的影响，并评估它们跟踪栖息地位置变化的能力。幼虫将在不利的条件下饲养，并将确定幸存的成虫的迁移状态。有证据表明，德克萨斯州的帝王蝶正在改变它们的迁徙模式。实地、实验室和移植研究将确定帝王蝶是否对当前的环境变化做出反应，例如引入非本地乳草或已经变化的气候。这表明它们的迁徙行为具有一定程度的可塑性，可以使它们科普未来的气候变化。拟议的研究依赖于通过君主幼虫监测项目收集的数据，该项目旨在让公民参与研究，以更好地了解君主生物学。即使对于像帝王蝶这样被充分研究的物种，也需要更多的信息来充分保护它们免受气候变化这样大的威胁。帝王蝶是公众中众所周知的几乎是标志性的物种，因此，这项研究可以作为人为气候变化对物种分布影响的一个例子。

Ongoing changes in the global climate could severely alter the well-known annual cycle of the monarch butterfly. Data from a citizen-science monitoring program was used to predict a northward summer range shift. This will necessitate a longer and faster migration, and monarchs could lose much of their breeding range. This project will investigate the effects of heat stress on monarch butterflies and assess their ability to track changes in habitat location. Larvae will be reared in unfavorable conditions and the migratory status of surviving adults will be determined. There is evidence that monarchs in Texas are changing their migratory patterns. Field, lab, and transplant studies will determine if monarchs are responding to current environmental changes, such as the introduction of non-native milkweed or an already changing climate. This indicates a level of plasticity in their migratory behavior that could allow them to cope with future climate change.The proposed research relies on data gathered through the Monarch Larva Monitoring Project, a program created to involve citizens in research to better understand monarch biology. Even for a species as well-studied as the monarch, more information is necessary for adequate protection from a threat as large as climate change. Monarchs are a well-known and almost iconic species among the public and as such, this study could serve as an example of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species distributions.