Minorities at Risk: Addressing Selection Bias Issues and Group Inclusion Criteria for Ethno-Political Research
面临风险的少数群体:解决民族政治研究的选择偏见问题和群体包容标准
基本信息
- 批准号:0718957
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 16.98万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2007
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2007-09-01 至 2010-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Protracted conflicts over the status and demands of ethnic and religious groups have caused more instability and loss of human life than any other type of local, regional, and international conflict since the end of WWII. In recent years, particularly since the end of the Cold War in 1990, mobilized and repressed ethnic groups have been among the key sources of terrorist recruitment, and have also contributed to international instability in the form of state failure. The Minorities at Risk (MAR) project is thus far the only sustained effort to collect systematic and replicable data on politically-active communal groups and their political actions. Originally designed in the late 1980s, the dataset and associated activities became a public good, used by academics, journalists, governments, and non-governmental organizations to answer a variety of descriptive and analytic questions unanticipated at the project's inception.Intensified attention to MAR revealed limitations and problems with the dataset, and raised questions about selection bias, measurement error and overall usefulness. It seems clear now that MAR's inclusion criteria (discrimination and/or political mobilization) were not systematically applied across countries, and that groups seem selected based on violence or expectation of violence. Concerns with selection bias are sufficient to warrant substantial changes to the current MAR dataset. Furthermore, the dataset in its present form is unwieldy and in need of restructuring as it currently includes over 450 variables, only about one ninth of which are identified as being of significant interest to the community of users as measured by usage in research papers, articles, and books.The project will take specific steps designed to address some of the deficiencies in MAR that have been identified by researchers. We will carefully define and enlarge the universe of ethno-political groups in the dataset to include both politically mobilized and non-mobilized groups, while streamlining the data to include only a subset of current variables. To this end, we propose a three-pronged concrete effort, portions of which are already underway. These efforts center on distinguishing between attributes of extant and proposed MAR groups and disseminating this information to users of the data in its current form, determining the appropriate universe of cases to ameliorate the selection bias and adding to the data and coding of new groups, and streamlining the number of variables. Most importantly, this proposal requests NSF support for this work at a critical moment in MAR's development and at a potential turning point in empirical research on ethno-political conflict, as both the academic and policy communities seek to better understand the dynamics of ethnic conflict.
种族和宗教团体的地位和要求的长期冲突造成的不稳定和人命损失比二战结束以来任何其他类型的地方、地区和国际冲突都要多。近年来,特别是自1990年冷战结束以来,被动员和镇压的少数民族群体一直是招募恐怖分子的主要来源之一,也以国家失败的形式造成了国际不稳定。处于危险中的少数群体项目是迄今为止收集有关积极参与政治的社区群体及其政治行动的系统和可复制数据的唯一持续努力。最初设计于20世纪80年代末,数据集和相关活动成为一种公共产品,被学者、记者、政府和非政府组织用来回答项目开始时未曾预料到的各种描述性和分析性问题。对MAR的高度关注揭示了数据集的局限性和问题,并提出了关于选择偏差、测量误差和总体有用性的问题。现在看来很清楚,MAR的纳入标准(歧视和/或政治动员)没有系统地适用于各国,而且似乎是根据暴力或对暴力的预期来选择群体。对选择偏差的关注足以保证对当前MAR数据集进行实质性更改。此外,目前形式的数据集笨拙且需要重组,因为它目前包含超过450个变量,其中只有约九分之一被确定为用户社区的重要兴趣,通过研究论文,文章和书籍的使用情况来衡量。该项目将采取具体步骤,旨在解决研究人员已经确定的MAR中的一些缺陷。我们将仔细定义和扩大数据集中民族政治群体的范围,以包括政治动员和非动员群体,同时简化数据以仅包括当前变量的子集。为此,我们提出三管齐下的具体努力,部分工作已经在进行中。这些努力的重点是区分现有的和拟议的MAR组的属性,并将这些信息以当前形式传播给数据用户,确定适当的案例范围以改善选择偏差,增加新组的数据和编码,并简化变量的数量。最重要的是,随着学术界和政策界都在寻求更好地了解种族冲突的动态,在MAR发展的关键时刻和种族-政治冲突实证研究的潜在转折点,本提案请求国家科学基金会支持这项工作。
项目成果
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