Addressing risk, stakeholder preferences and appropriate responses to the UK energy crisis in a climate changed world

2021年1月，英国50%以上的能源需求来自可再生能源。当时，首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(当时也是这样)承诺联合王国通过立法实现世界上最雄心勃勃的气候变化目标，到2035年将温室气体排放量比1990年的水平减少78%。巧合的是，今天英国78%的能源需求来自化石燃料。因此，英国正在背离自己的立法目标--第六碳预算和巴黎协议。与此同时，最近的经验证据表明，气候风险对基础设施、日常生活、家庭福祉、商业和工业的影响越来越大。洪灾和极端天气事件造成与所有这些因素有关的破坏，并对现在和未来构成重大和日益严重的风险。在联合王国的许多地区，洪水风险很高，与工地一级、社区一级和区域一级保护措施不足有关的重大暴露风险。此外，几乎没有理由认为，在当代历史的基础上，公共当局将有效地管理风险。气候变化造成的海岸线侵蚀也正在成为相关社区和企业更为持久的特征。我们最北端的集水区意味着更大和更频繁的赤字，以及可供抽取的水的可用性。同样重要的是，国际供应链风险正在直接影响商品的可获得性。鉴于英国经济的大部分GDP与国际贸易有关，最近显示出食品、服装和电子产品等基本商品的供应链风险对我们的生活质量产生了重大影响。更重要的是，俄罗斯在乌克兰持续的战争和生活成本危机给英国政府提供低碳期货的能力带来了巨大的新压力。这些因素都给当代和子孙后代带来了重大的环境风险。这种针对渐进式气候变化战略的严重后果压力的描述并不是联合王国独有的。欧盟在试图实施其新的欧盟绿色协议时，也面临着同样的挑战。因此，从今年开始，英国议会环境审计委员会正在寻求一项全国性的“战争努力”动员措施，以引导英国回到一个健全的低碳未来基础上。因此，它强调了为减少气候变化影响和减少对化石燃料的依赖而采取的重大能效措施。例如，它呼吁在两年内安装100万个新的节能装置，到本十年结束时安装250万个这样的装置。委员会还希望进一步增加风能、太阳能和潮汐能发电。它还希望为任何新的石油和天然气许可回合设定一个具体的结束日期。不幸的是，这些雄心壮志没有强有力的实施战略。在这种充满风险的环境中，本项目将使用定量和定性相结合的方法来：1.描述这种低碳未来进程逆转对民间社会不断上升的环境风险；2.评估战争努力措施对减轻环境风险的潜在个人贡献；3.认真分析与战争努力篮子低碳措施有关的实施缺陷和机会；4.确定与环境损害风险增加和相关自然资源限制有关的利益相关者影响；5.评估利益攸关方和专家对我们的低碳未来的偏好；6.提出符合当代英国能源安全和可负担性需求的气候和环境风险降低措施。

In January 2021, more than 50% of the UK's energy needs came from renewables sources. At that time, Prime Minister Boris Johnson (as he then was) committed the United Kingdom to achieve the world's most ambitious climate change target through legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. By coincidence, today 78% of the UK's energy needs are sourced from fossil fuels. As such, the UK is traveling in reverse gear away from its own legislated targets, is sixth Carbon Budget and the Paris Agreement.At the same time, recent empirical evidence suggests the growing impact the climate risks are having on infrastructure, everyday life, household well-being, business and industry. Flooding and extreme weather events cause damage in relation to all of these factors and pose a significant and growing risk for now and in the future. Flood risks are high in many parts of the United Kingdom with significant exposure risk in relation to insufficient protection measures at the site level, community level and regional level. Moreover, there is little reason to assume that on the basis of contemporary history, public authorities will manage risks at an effective level. Coastal level erosion caused by climate change is also becoming a more permanent feature of relevant communities and businesses. Our northernmost catchment areas for water suggest larger and more frequent deficits and the availability of water for abstraction. Of equal significance,international supply chain risks are directly affecting the availability of goods. Given that most of the UK economy's GDP is linked to international trade, recently demonstrated supply chain risks in basic items such as food, clothing and electronics have had a significant impact on our quality of life. What is more, the ongoing Russian war in the Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis have placed significant new pressure on the UK government's ability to deliver low carbon futures. These factors all carry significant environmental risk for current and future generations. This characterization of the highly consequential pressures against progressive climate change strategies is not unique to the United Kingdom. The European Union is facing the same challenges as it attempts to implement its new EU Green Deal. As a consequence, from this year, the UK Parliament Environmental Audit Committee is seeking a national "War Effort" mobilization of measures to guide the UK back on to a sound low carbon future footing. Accordingly, it has emphasized significant energy efficiency measures to cut climate change impacts and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. For example, it is calling for 1 million new energy efficient installations in two years and 2.5 million such installations by the end of the decade. The Committee also wishes to further ramp-up wind, solar and tidal energy power. It also wants a specific end date for any new oil and gas licensing rounds. Unfortunately, these ambitions are without robust implementation strategies.In this surrounding, risky state of affairs, this project will use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to:1. characterize the rising environmental risks to civil society on this low carbon futures course reversal; 2. evaluate the War Effort measures in terms of their potential individual contributions towards the mitigation of environmental risks;3. critically analyse implementation deficits and opportunities in relation to the War Effort basket of low carbon measures taking account of comparative European experience;4. identify stakeholder impacts pertaining to elevated environmental risks of damage and related natural resource constraints;5. assess stakeholder and expert preferences for our low carbon futures; and,6. propose climate and environmental risk reduction measures that are consistent with contemporary UK energy security and affordability needs.