Addressing risk, stakeholder preferences and appropriate responses to the UK energy crisis in a climate changed world

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In January 2021, more than 50% of the UK's energy needs came from renewables sources. At that time, Prime Minister Boris Johnson (as he then was) committed the United Kingdom to achieve the world's most ambitious climate change target through legislation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 78% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. By coincidence, today 78% of the UK's energy needs are sourced from fossil fuels. As such, the UK is traveling in reverse gear away from its own legislated targets, is sixth Carbon Budget and the Paris Agreement.At the same time, recent empirical evidence suggests the growing impact the climate risks are having on infrastructure, everyday life, household well-being, business and industry. Flooding and extreme weather events cause damage in relation to all of these factors and pose a significant and growing risk for now and in the future. Flood risks are high in many parts of the United Kingdom with significant exposure risk in relation to insufficient protection measures at the site level, community level and regional level. Moreover, there is little reason to assume that on the basis of contemporary history, public authorities will manage risks at an effective level. Coastal level erosion caused by climate change is also becoming a more permanent feature of relevant communities and businesses. Our northernmost catchment areas for water suggest larger and more frequent deficits and the availability of water for abstraction. Of equal significance,international supply chain risks are directly affecting the availability of goods. Given that most of the UK economy's GDP is linked to international trade, recently demonstrated supply chain risks in basic items such as food, clothing and electronics have had a significant impact on our quality of life. What is more, the ongoing Russian war in the Ukraine and the cost-of-living crisis have placed significant new pressure on the UK government's ability to deliver low carbon futures. These factors all carry significant environmental risk for current and future generations. This characterization of the highly consequential pressures against progressive climate change strategies is not unique to the United Kingdom. The European Union is facing the same challenges as it attempts to implement its new EU Green Deal. As a consequence, from this year, the UK Parliament Environmental Audit Committee is seeking a national "War Effort" mobilization of measures to guide the UK back on to a sound low carbon future footing. Accordingly, it has emphasized significant energy efficiency measures to cut climate change impacts and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. For example, it is calling for 1 million new energy efficient installations in two years and 2.5 million such installations by the end of the decade. The Committee also wishes to further ramp-up wind, solar and tidal energy power. It also wants a specific end date for any new oil and gas licensing rounds. Unfortunately, these ambitions are without robust implementation strategies.In this surrounding, risky state of affairs, this project will use a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to:1. characterize the rising environmental risks to civil society on this low carbon futures course reversal; 2. evaluate the War Effort measures in terms of their potential individual contributions towards the mitigation of environmental risks;3. critically analyse implementation deficits and opportunities in relation to the War Effort basket of low carbon measures taking account of comparative European experience;4. identify stakeholder impacts pertaining to elevated environmental risks of damage and related natural resource constraints;5. assess stakeholder and expert preferences for our low carbon futures; and,6. propose climate and environmental risk reduction measures that are consistent with contemporary UK energy security and affordability needs.