How should Model Linkages be designed to analyze the Effects of Global Agricultural Trade Liberalization at the Farm Level?

应如何设计模型联系来分析全球农业贸易自由化对农场层面的影响？

• 批准号: 183162808
• 负责人: Professorin Dr. Martina Brockmeier
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Präsident/Präsidialstab
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2009-12-31 至 2014-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/183162808?language=en
• 关键词: How; should; Model; Linkages; designed

In the last decades agricultural policy has gained increasingly in complexity. Nowadays it influences the food and agricultural sector from the global market down to the farm level. Widespread research questions, like the impact of the WTO negotiations on the farm structure, most often require comprehensive modeling frameworks. Thus, different types of models are utilized according to their comparative advantages and combined in a strategically useful way to more accurately represent micro and macro aspects of the food and agricultural sector. Consequently, in recent years we have seen an increase in the development and application of model linkages. Given this background, the overall objective of this subproject is a systematic sensitivity analysis of model linkages that gradually involves more and more characteristics of the linkage and the corresponding transfer of results between models. In addition, the project aims to answer the following specific question: How does structural change at the farm level influence aggregate supply and technical progress? Under which conditions is it possible to derive macro-relationships from micro-relationships? How does the aggregation level influence the model results and how can possible problems be overcome? This procedure is used to quantify the effects and to derive conditions for optimal interaction of the connected models. The analysis is based on the general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and the farm group model FARMIS (Farm Modelling Information System) which are employed in conjunction to analyze the effects of WTO negotiations on the farm level.

在过去的几十年里，农业政策变得越来越复杂。如今，它影响着从全球市场到农场层面的食品和农业部门。广泛的研究问题，如WTO谈判对农业结构的影响，通常需要全面的建模框架。因此，不同类型的模型根据其比较优势加以利用，并以战略上有用的方式加以组合，以更准确地反映粮食和农业部门的微观和宏观方面。因此，近年来，我们看到模型联系的发展和应用有所增加。在此背景下，本次级项目的总体目标是对模型联系进行系统的敏感性分析，逐步涉及越来越多的联系特征以及模型之间相应的成果转移。此外，该项目旨在回答以下具体问题：农场一级的结构变化如何影响总供给和技术进步？在什么条件下才有可能从微观关系中衍生出宏观关系？聚合水平如何影响模型结果以及如何克服可能出现的问题？这个过程是用来量化的影响，并得出条件的最佳相互作用的连接模型。分析是基于一般均衡模型GTAP（全球贸易分析项目）和农场集团模型FARMIS（农场建模信息系统），这是结合使用来分析WTO谈判对农场层面的影响。