MOD: Innovation and Technology Implementation: Theory and Policy Implications

创新活动决定了生活水平的增长速度。不幸的是，即使是最先进的创新模型也过于程式化，错过了创新活动的重要决定因素。因此，它们的定性和（特别是）定量含义是不准确的。一项创新的市场价值的关键决定因素之一是它的采用路径。被广泛采用的技术比未被广泛采用的技术具有更高的市场价值。鉴于技术采用强度存在巨大的跨国差异，研究表明，采用对创新价值的影响是重要的。当然，技术采用的动力也是内生的。因此，为了准确地探索各种科技政策对创新活动的作用，需要一种将采用和创新决策整合在统一框架中的理论。本研究开发的框架以一种易于处理的方式实现了这一目标。本研究中的框架有几个重要的优点。首先，很容易扩展该模型，以适应创新和采用成本的现实部门和跨国异质性。其次，使用有关研发支出和技术采用强度的跨国信息来校准模型参数非常简单。一旦针对经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的每个国家校准了该模型的多国版本，就会发现一个纳什均衡解决方案，该博弈由28个社会规划者（每个OECD国家一个）进行，这些规划者在给定其他国家的政策的情况下，选择创新和采用政策，使本国的福利最大化。这项工作的结果将是为每一个经合发组织国家制定一个完整和准确的科学和创新政策处方，其依据是一个与目前研究和发展费用的跨国分布和技术采用强度相一致的模型。这项研究产生了若干研究和政策溢出效应。首先，本文提出的方法可以被经济学和其他学科的研究人员使用，这些研究人员希望对创新和/或技术采用和扩散进行建模。其次，从规范实践中得出的具体预测可用于在美国和其他经合组织国家实施科学和创新政策。第三，本研究开发的模型将被纳入研究人员设计的研究生二年级课程教学大纲中。这些见解将非常直观，可以在高级本科阶段教授。最后，对各种研究助理进行动态宏观经济理论和应用宏观经济学方面的培训。

Innovation activity determines the growth rate of living standards. Unfortunately, even state of the art models of innovation are too stylized and miss important determinants of innovation activity. Hence, their qualitative and (especially) quantitative implications are inaccurate.One of the critical determinants of the market value of an innovation is its adoption path. Technologies that are adopted intensively have a higher market value than those that are not. Given the enormous cross-country variation that exists in the intensity of technology adoption, research shows that the effect of adoption on the value of an innovation is important. Of course, the dynamics of technology adoption are also endogenous. Therefore, to explore accurately the role of various science and technology policies on innovation activity there is a need for a theory that integrates the adoption and innovation decisions in a unified framework. The framework developed in this study accomplishes this in a tractable way.The framework in this study has a couple of significant virtues. First, it is easy to extend the model to accommodate realistic sectoral and cross-country heterogeneity in the costs of innovation and adoption. Second, it is quite simple to calibrate the model parameters using cross-country information on research and development expenditures and technology adoption intensity.Once the multi-country version of the model is calibrated for each of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, a Nash equilibrium solution is found for a game played by the 28 social planners (one per OECD country) that choose the innovation and adoption policies that maximize their country's welfare taking as given the other countries' policies. The outcome of this exercise will be a complete and accurate science and innovation policy prescription for each OECD country based on a model that is consistent with the current cross-country distribution of research and development expenses and technology adoption intensities.There are several research and policy spillovers from this study. First, the methodology presented can be used by other researchers--in economics and other disciplines--that want to model innovation and/or technology adoption and diffusion. Second, the specific predictions from the normative exercise can be used to conduct science and innovation policy in the U.S. and in the rest of OECD countries. Third, the models developed in this study will be incorporated in syllabi designed by the researchers for a second year graduate courses. The insights will be quite intuitive and can be taught at the advanced undergraduate level. Finally, various research assistants are trained, both in dynamic macroeconomic theory and in applied macroeconomics.