Doctoral Dissertation Research: A Participatory Scenario Modeling System for Decision Making in Complex Social-Ecological Systems

参与式情景建模--一种可视化未来的交互方法--是就复杂的自然资源问题达成可持续协议的一种有前途的工具。然而，场景建模师往往把重点放在建模的技术方面，而不是强调协作和参与的重要性。我们将开发和测试一个融合了许多不同学科的经验教训的平台，以促进协作思维、创造新想法，并增加对自然资源政策的所有权和支持。首先，我们将在一个理想的研究系统中实施参与式情景建模过程：危地马拉玛雅生物圈保护区的米拉多盆地。我们将整合以下工具：1)促进和团队维护：我们将作为现有促进团队的一部分开展工作，以保持所有利益相关者群体的充分参与，促进相互理解，促进包容性决策，并教授新的思维技能；2)了解现状：我们将通过正式的认知图谱过程来描述和阐明对系统的不同理解；3)思考未来：我们将把利益相关者头脑中的认知地图转化为可视化、互动的空间模型，并促进互动研讨会，以探索潜在的未来，以促进健康的对话和社会学习。我们将通过测试参与式情景建模过程是否：1)促进创新政策替代方案的创建，2)在不同利益相关者群体之间创造偏好的趋同，以及3)提高决策过程的满意度，来评估该平台的成功。这项研究将开发和测试一个混合情景建模系统，该系统专门为复杂的社会生态系统的决策而量身定做。这些成果将在新的米拉多-里奥阿祖尔国家公园五年总体规划中依法制度化，将有助于指导区域投资，并将成为在治理薄弱的其他区域建立共识和参与性规划的典范。

Participatory scenario modeling -- an interactive method for visualizing the future -- is a promising tools for achieving sustainable agreements for complex natural resource problems. Scenario modelers, however, have often focused on the technical aspects of model building, deemphasizing the importance of collaboration and participation. We will develop and test a platform that fuses lessons from many disparate disciplines in order to promote collaborative thinking, the creation of new ideas, and increased ownership and support for natural resource policies. First, we will implement a participatory scenario modeling process in one ideal study system: Mirador Basin of the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala. We will integrate tools for: 1) Facilitation and group maintenance: We will work as part of an existing facilitation team in order to maintain full participation of all stakeholder groups, promote mutual understanding, foster inclusive decisions, and teach new thinking skills; 2) Understanding the present: We will characterize and elucidate different understandings of the system through a formal cognitive mapping process; 3) Thinking about the future: We will translate cognitive maps from stakeholders' minds into visual, interactive spatial models and facilitate interactive workshops for exploration of potential futures to stimulate healthy dialogue and social learning. We will evaluate the success of the platform by testing whether the participatory scenario modeling process: 1) promotes the creation of innovative policy alternatives, 2) creates a convergence of preferences among different stakeholder groups, and 3) increases satisfaction with the decision-making process. This research will develop and test a hybrid scenario modeling system especially tailored for decision making in complex social-ecological systems. The results will be legally institutionalized in the new 5-year Master Plan for Mirador-Rio Azul National Park, will help direct regional investments, and will serve as a model for consensus-building and participatory planning in other regions with weak governance.