Mesoamerican Dendroclimatology: Climate Dynamics and Socioeconomic Applications

资金将使研究人员能够继续开发来自中美洲的长而准确的树木年轮年表，用于重建季节性降水模式和相关的大规模气候动态。具体地说，研究人员将：1)在墨西哥中部和南部和危地马拉建立对气候敏感的蒙特祖玛赤柏、道格拉斯冷杉和其他针叶树年表；2)分析蒙特祖玛赤柏年表，跨越过去1200年，在Qeretaro的Barranca de Amealco，Queretaro，以及在Los Peroles，San Luis Potosi的过去1600年；3)在墨西哥和危地马拉扩大网格干旱严重程度重建，以提供气候变异性的替代记录，并将当前的干旱置于历史背景中；4)调查中美洲水文气候学的长期、大范围海洋-大气强迫；5)建立墨西哥南部和危地马拉的区域降水、径流和作物产量记录的校准重建；以及6)探索重建的极端气候与墨西哥和危地马拉流行病、蝗虫暴发和社会混乱的历史记录之间的联系。这项研究融合了气候、生物学、流行病学和经济学等通常截然不同的研究领域。智力的整合，加上强有力的培训和国际合作，使这个项目有望产生广泛的影响。

Funding will allow the researcher to continue developing long, exactly dated tree-ring chronologies from Mesoamerica for use in reconstructing patterns of seasonal precipitation and associated large-scale climate dynamics. Specifically, the researcher will: 1) develop a network of climate-sensitive Montezuma baldcypress, Douglas-fir, and other conifer chronologies in central and southern Mexico and Guatemala; 2) analyze the Montezuma baldcypress chronologies spanning the past 1200 years at Barranca de Amealco, Qeretaro and the past 1600-years at Los Peroles, San Luis Potosi; 3) expand gridded drought severity reconstructions across Mexico and Guatemala to provide a proxy record of climate variability and to place the current drought in historical context; 4) investigate the long term, large scale ocean-atmospheric forcing of Mesoamerican hydroclimatology; 5) develop calibrated reconstructions of regional precipitation, streamflow, and crop yield records for southern Mexico and Guatemala; and 6) explore the link between reconstructed climate extremes and the historical record of epidemic disease, locust outbreaks, and social disruption in Mexico and Guatemala. This research integrates across usually disparate fields of inquiry such as climate, biology, epidemiology, and economics. The intellectual integration coupled with strong training and international collaboration makes for promising broad impact by this project.