Doctoral Dissertation Research: 19th Century Meteorology and Climatology in Kansas

博士论文研究：堪萨斯州 19 世纪气象学和气候学

• 批准号: 0622894
• 负责人: David Stahle
• 金额: $ 0.7万
• 依托单位: University of Arkansas
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-08-01 至 2009-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0622894&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; 19th; Century

Kansas and the central Great Plains are subject to dramatic weather and climate extremes that have major impacts on the important agricultural economy of the region. Excellent daily instrumental records of nineteenth century weather and climate exist for Kansas (e.g. Fort Leavenworth which begins in July 1827), but have not been evaluated systematically. Much of our understanding of past nineteenth century climate in interior North America are the result of tree-ring reconstructions. The detailed daily weather observations from the nineteenth century that exist in historical microfilms, newspapers, and diaries can provide much greater detail than is possible with tree-ring data. This research project will launch a comprehensive study to: 1) reconstruct daily nineteenth century temperature in Kansas and link it seamlessly with the modern record from 1828-2006. 2) Reconstruct nineteenth century precipitation in Kansas on a daily to annual basis from 1836-2006. 3) Describe and analyze the synoptic conditions for five severe blizzards of the late nineteenth century in Kansas. A suite of the best instrumental and documentary records will be utilized in order to achieve these objectives including Fort Leavenworth, Manhattan, Fort Scott, and Fort Dodge. Daily nineteenth century temperature and precipitation data will be assessed and corrected using twentieth century weather data to make them directly comparable with observational practices of the modern instrumental record. This study will produce the longest unbiased instrumental temperature and precipitation record in the central Great Plains starting in June 1828 for temperature and May 1836 for precipitation and running continuously to the present. The resulting data will be used to answer several intriguing questions. Has there been a significant secular trend in seasonal temperatures over the past 178 years? Was the mid-nineteenth century drought more severe than the Dust Bowl? Has there been a change in winter storm frequency? Were cold waves more severe in the nineteenth century?This study will document climate variability and climate change in the central United States before and during the period of anthropogenic alteration of the global climate system. This research will provide new nineteenth century data to calibrate proxy climate records (e.g. tree-rings) and assist in climate modeling studies. The methods used in this study will be relevant to future studies of daily historical climate data. The results of this research will be made available to the public and especially schools for their use in evaluating climate variability in the state of Kansas. The results will also be disseminated in literature and presented at scholarly meetings. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.

堪萨斯州和中部大平原地区经常受到极端天气和气候的影响，这对该地区重要的农业经济产生了重大影响。堪萨斯州存在着19世纪天气和气候的优秀的每日仪器记录（例如1827年7月开始的莱文沃思堡），但尚未得到系统的评估。我们对过去19世纪北美内陆气候的大部分了解都是树木年轮重建的结果。从19世纪开始，在历史上的缩微胶片、报纸和日记中存在的详细的每日天气观测可以提供比树木年轮数据更详细的信息。这个研究项目将启动一项全面的研究：1)重建19世纪堪萨斯州的每日温度，并将其与1828年至2006年的现代记录无缝地联系起来。2)重建1836-2006年期间堪萨斯州19世纪逐日至每年的降水。3)描述并分析19世纪晚期堪萨斯州五次严重暴风雪的天气条件。为了实现这些目标，将使用一套最好的乐器和文献记录，包括莱文沃斯堡，曼哈顿，斯科特堡和道奇堡。将利用20世纪的天气资料评估和校正19世纪的每日温度和降水资料，使其与现代仪器记录的观测实践直接比较。本研究将产生从1828年6月温度和1836年5月降水开始的大平原中部最长的无偏仪器温度和降水记录，并一直持续至今。由此产生的数据将用于回答几个有趣的问题。在过去的178年里，季节温度是否有明显的长期趋势？19世纪中期的干旱比沙尘暴更严重吗？冬季风暴的频率有变化吗？19世纪的寒潮更严重吗？本研究将记录全球气候系统人为改变之前和期间美国中部的气候变率和气候变化。这项研究将为校正代用气候记录（如树木年轮）和协助气候模拟研究提供新的19世纪数据。本研究中使用的方法将与未来的日常历史气候数据研究相关。这项研究的结果将提供给公众，特别是学校，用于评估堪萨斯州的气候变化。研究结果也将以文献形式散发，并在学术会议上提出。作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项将为有前途的学生提供支持，使他们能够建立强大的独立研究事业。