Research Starter: Population Dynamics and Evolution of Emerging Viruses

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About five percent of the world's population died when the last major influenza pandemic swept the world in 1918. Yet our understanding of emerging infectious diseases has increased only superficially in the past century. Some viruses spread pandemically through populations, whereas others appear only briefly before disappearing. Theory indicates that a virus's ability to adapt to its new host is critical its emergence, and that its ability to adapt is partially a function of virus immigration into an evolving population. The proposed laboratory experiments test how immigration affects an emerging virus's ability to adapt, by manipulating the number of immigrants entering an experimental population. Contrary to intuition, if theory is correct, there may be a positive relationship between immigration and adaptation. This result would challenge conventional wisdom regarding local adaptation. This research will permit a better understanding of how viruses emerge, and potentially allow us to predict which ones are greater threats than others to host populations. The project has broader implications beyond the study of disease emergence. The PI is himself disabled, and as such provides a role model for other such individuals. The PI's institution has a large minority population, and the PI will integrate minority graduate, undergraduate and high school students into his research program.