CNH: Collaborative Research: Integrated Dynamic Modeling of Ecosystem Services, Incentive-Based Policies, Land-Use Decisions, and Ecological Outcomes

在过去的世纪，人口和人类经济的快速增长已经改变了世界各地的景观。 这些变化减少了自然生境并使其支离破碎，导致生物多样性和许多生态系统服务丧失。 要维持生物多样性和生态系统服务，同时满足人类社会对粮食、纤维、燃料和其他必需品的需求，就需要对土地利用和土地管理的生物和经济后果进行综合评估。 这个跨学科的研究项目将开发和应用一个综合的动态成本模型方法来预测和比较替代政策激励和市场力量如何影响土地利用决策;由此产生的土地利用变化如何影响物种保护，碳储存和商品生产的价值;以及这将如何影响未来的土地利用决策。 研究人员将通过开发基于观察到的土地所有者行为的统计模型来解决这些问题，以便预测可能的土地利用变化作为当前土地利用条件，公共政策和市场机会的函数。 土地利用变化对物种保护、生态系统服务和经济回报都有影响。 由这些决定形成的土地使用模式将作为预测物种状况、生态系统服务流动和景观商品生产价值的模型的输入。 目前的土地使用决定和由此产生的一系列后果将为未来的条件奠定基础，这些条件决定未来的政策和市场机会，而这些政策和机会又将影响未来的土地使用变化。 这种综合方法将被用来分析替代政策对土地利用变化动态的可能影响，物种保护，生态系统服务和经济活动对景观的影响。 综合动态景观建模方法将适用于景观在几个地理尺度上，从48个相邻的州，以区域分析适用于威拉米特盆地在俄勒冈州和北方湖区在威斯康星州。 通过在同一建模方法中使用不同尺度的分析，将解决两个问题：（1）增加细节和空间分辨率对分析和结果有多大影响？和（2）分析是否可以嵌套，即可以使用大尺度分析突出关注的区域和物种，此时可以使用更精细的尺度分析进行更详细的分析？在人类经济不断增长、当前需求迫切的情况下，要保护生物多样性和维持人类福祉所必需的长期生态系统服务，就需要在了解人类选择和行动的全部后果的基础上进行认真规划。 该项目将把经济和生态研究纳入一个连贯的框架，以预测景观动态以及这些动态对生物多样性保护、生态系统服务和经济生产的影响。 本项目开发的综合景观模型将提供工具和见解，可用于改善广泛的利益攸关方的决策。 通过促进仔细思考整个景观的人类活动的模式，范围和强度，该项目可以帮助土地所有者和政策制定者实现重要的物种保护和生态系统服务目标，同时也产生长期的高经济回报。 该项目由NSF耦合自然和人类系统动力学（CNH）计划支持。

Over the past century, rapid growth of human population and the human economy has transformed landscapes around the world. These transformations have reduced and fragmented natural habitat, resulting in loss of biodiversity and many ecosystem services. Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while meeting the needs of human society for food, fiber, fuel, and other essentials requires integrated assessment of the biological and economic consequences of land use and land management. This interdisciplinary research project will develop and apply an integrated dynamic landscape-modeling approach to predict and compare how alternative policy incentives and market forces affect land-use decisions; how resulting land-use changes affect species conservation, carbon storage, and the value of commodity production; and how this will affect future land-use decisions. The investigators will approach these questions by developing statistical models based on observed landowner behavior in order to predict likely land-use changes as a function of current land-use conditions, public policy, and market opportunities. Land-use changes have consequences for species conservation, ecosystem services, and economic returns. Land-use patterns shaped by these decisions will serve as input into models that predict the status of species, the flow of ecosystem services, and the value of commodity production from the landscape. Current land-use decisions and the resulting set of consequences will set the stage for future conditions that shape future policies and market opportunities, which, in turn, will affect future land-use changes. This integrated approach will be used to analyze the likely effect of alternative policies on land-use change dynamics, the consequent trajectory for species conservation, ecosystem services, and economic activities on the landscape. The integrated dynamic landscape modeling approach will be applied to landscapes at several geographic scales, from the 48 contiguous states to regional analysis applied to the Willamette Basin in Oregon and the Northern Lakes Region in Wisconsin. Two questions will be addressed by using different scales of analysis within the same modeling approach: (1) How much difference does inclusion of increased detail and spatial resolution make to the analysis and results?, and (2) Can analyses be nested in the sense that one can use the broad-scale analysis to highlight areas and species of concern, at which point more detailed analysis can be undertaken using finer scale analysis?Conserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services necessary for human welfare in the long-run in the midst of a growing human economy with pressing current needs requires careful planning based on an understanding of the full set of consequences of human choices and actions. This project will integrate economic and ecological research into a coherent framework to predict landscape dynamics and the effects of these dynamics on biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, and economic production. The integrated landscape model developed in this project will provide tools and insights that can be used to improve decision making by a broad range of stakeholders. By facilitating careful thinking about the pattern, extent, and intensity of human activities across the landscape through time, this project may help landowners and policy makers to achieve important species conservation and ecosystem service objectives while also generating high economic returns over the long term. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.