Collaborative Research: Ecosystem Responses to Progressive and Rapid Climate Change During the Holocene in New England

自然生态系统的未来轨迹和对人类社会的影响将有很大不同，这取决于平均气候相对渐进的变化在多大程度上伴随着零星的干扰或短期极端气候事件，而这些事件又可能引发植被的突然变化。例如，在逐渐变化的气候下，干旱、火灾或人类活动可能会引发物种丰度和群落的突然变化。我们预测未来变化的能力将受益于对以前生态转变的细节的洞察，特别是那些突然发生的转变。该项目涉及三个合作的研究小组，采用互补的方法重建过去的气候-生态系统动力学。对新英格兰南部湖泊沉积物记录的高分辨率分析将揭示过去15,000年来气候、植被和干扰的过去变化，从而提高我们对气候变化与环境极端和干扰相互作用的机制的认识，从而控制生态变化的速度和模式。这项工作的结果将有助于我们理解基本的生态动力学，并为植被、干扰和气候之间的精细、短期相互作用提供洞察力。该项目将产生样本、数据和分析，这些样本、数据和分析将被永久存档，并可通过基于网络的信息管理系统、大量出版物和国际研讨会以原始、处理和合成的格式获取。公众宣传工作将包括为模范课程开发课程，本科电影和新闻项目，以及与科学博物馆的合作。跨学科和多机构的研究环境将为研究生提供培训，为本科生提供指导。

The future trajectories of natural ecosystems and consequences for human societies will vary greatly depending on the extent to which relatively gradual changes in average climate are accompanied by episodic instances of disturbance or short-term extremes in climate that may, in turn, trigger abrupt shifts in vegetation. For example, under a gradually changing climate, abrupt shifts in species abundances and assemblages may be triggered by drought, fire, or human activity. Our ability to anticipate future changes would benefit from insights into the details of previous ecological transitions, particularly those that have been abrupt. This project involves three collaborating research groups employing complementary approaches to reconstruct past climate-ecosystem dynamics. High-resolution analyses of lake-sediment records from southern New England will reveal past changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance for the last 15,000 years, thus improving our knowledge of the mechanisms by which climate change interacts with environmental extremes and disturbance to control the pace and patterns of ecological change.The results of this work will inform our understanding of fundamental ecological dynamics and provide insights into the fine-scale, short-term interactions of vegetation, disturbance, and climate. The project will yield samples, data, and analyses that will be permanently archived and accessible in raw, processed, and synthesized formats through a web-based information management system, numerous publications, and international symposia. Public outreach efforts will involve curriculum development for model courses, undergraduate film and journalism projects, and collaborations with scientific museums. The interdisciplinary and multi-institutional research environment will provide training for graduate students and mentoring for undergraduates.