LANDSCAPE VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE TO GLOBAL CHANGE

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Research to understand, anticipate, and adapt to global change requires a cross-disciplinary investigation of how factors such as land use and climate are altering ecosystems today and in the future. We seek to host a workshop that engages a diverse community of researchers with strong backgrounds in forecasting and future scenarios research and a demonstrated commitment to making this work an LTER network-wide activity. The workshop would focus on the modeling component of this activity, with the goal of creating a robust forecasting tool that can address major scientific questions and challenges for society, including: (1) how will shifting natural and cultural processes affect a region?s future? (2) how will these changes influence a region?s natural infrastructure including carbon sequestration, water availability, habitat, and natural resources, and (3) how and why do regions differ in their vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability to global change? Products of the workshop will include the initial development of a cross-site model framework for the project; a strategy for confronting logistical barriers to the modeling effort; and a critical assessment of the staff and resources needed at each of the participating LTER sites for the project to succeed.Thinking of possible scenarios is among the most promising approaches to addressing the ecological and socioeconomic challenges of global change. The network-wide nature of this activity will engage regional clusters of sites and allow them to pool resources and expertise on shared ecosystem types, stakeholder groups, land use issues, and other factors. The initial and ongoing work of the project will have major societal benefits through direct engagement of diverse stakeholder communities in the creation of the tool (policy and decision makers, managers, community and business leaders, educators, and a wide array of scientists in different disciplines) and through its direct focus on addressing societal and scientific questions.